1st Friday Production Updates

November 2017

1st Friday Production Update:

Current Production:
  • GSO-2.7 Presale orders are all shipped out!
  • The SURVIVE! Workshop is focused on fulfilling GSO-4.1 and GSO-7/7 Preorders and getting caught up on weekly sales.
  • We are also finishing out GSO-4 Limited blades, in smaller numbers until we are further ahead on older Preorders.
  • GSO-3.5 / SK-3.5 blades are starting to arrive at the SURVIVE! Workshop and the initial QC has been great! Another huge thanks to the folks at Millit for being as meticulous as we are. Once we have what we need for GSO Preorders, the remaining blade blanks will be heading to Precision Plus to become SK-3.5s. Follow @surviveknives on Instagram to know when the materials start coming in for the GSO-3.5.
  • With the GSO-3.5 grinding smoothing out and moving forward, the GSO-12 / SK-12 run is scheduled to begin cutting soon. The GSO-6 / SK-6 run will be right on it's heels!

Future Production:
  • Production is scheduled to continue in the following order:
  • Additional models will be added to the production schedule once these are further along. This includes the Necker, Necker II, and GSO-4.7.
 
Certainly nice getting updates but something I'd like to see added to the update would be if a particular model is beginning to ship out somewhat regularly, provide the order# shipped out as of date (i.e. "as of 31OCT17, 4.1 (F2) Orders up to #..... have been shipped"). It may very well be discouraging of the progress but would at least provide some insight where our order# falls within the mix. I ordered a (F1st) Presale 4.1 end of July last year and despite a returned email from Jordyn stating my blank has been cut, I have no idea where it stacks among the Preorders which I believe were ahead of the Presales.
 
I think that was the single most lackluster update ever put out. Particularly...

The SURVIVE! Workshop is focused on fulfilling GSO-4.1 and GSO-7/7 Preorders and getting caught up on weekly sales.

I'd look back and see when I got my 4.1 and 7/7 2nds but I think it'd just depress me. Don't get me wrong, those are two of the best knives I will ever own. But that was.. I dunno, beginning of summer? May? June? Doesn't matter but it doesn't seem like there's any real progress. I love me some Survive! knives, you guys rock, but SURVIVE! Ellie SURVIVE! Ellie if you aren't going to expand your staff just do runs of 100 knives or so, you'll still dominate your market.
 
grogimus said:
I think that was the single most lackluster update ever put out. Particularly...

The SURVIVE! Workshop is focused on fulfilling GSO-4.1 and GSO-7/7 Preorders and getting caught up on weekly sales.

I'd look back and see when I got my 4.1 and 7/7 2nds but I think it'd just depress me. Don't get me wrong, those are two of the best knives I will ever own. But that was.. I dunno, beginning of summer? May? June? Doesn't matter but it doesn't seem like there's any real progress. I love me some Survive! knives, you guys rock, but SURVIVE! Ellie SURVIVE! Ellie if you aren't going to expand your staff just do runs of 100 knives or so, you'll still dominate your market.
Click to expand...

Agree that these updates are mixed blessings. Yes, it’s nice to know they’re working to fulfill orders. But it’s discouraging to see how slow the progress is. For instance, it’s been several months now that 4.1s have been getting finished and shipped == but they haven’t reached order #6xxx yet.

Considering all the 5.1s, 4.7s, etc. already completed and shipped over the previous few years, and all the order numbers preceding #6xxx for knives AFTER the 4.1s in the production queue (4.5s, 6s, etc.), this really makes me wonder just what the rate of production really is.

If 2nd generation GSOs didn’t start shipping until, say, Sept of 2015, and if these order numbers started with 2nd gen only, and if ALL orders prior to #6xxx were for 4.1s or models preceding 4.1s in the production queue, then the rate of production would be less than 6xxx/24 months. Since 6xxx hasn’t been shipped yet, let’s use 6000 for our low end estimate of the maximum number produced over the past two years.

6000/24 = 250/month. Given a 5-day work week, that makes an average of 11.4 knives per day being sharpened, finished (scales fitted), packaged, and shipped. Depending on the actual ratio of post-4.1 production knives in the pre-6000 order queue to post-6000 order #s in the pre-4.1 production queue, the real rate of production is likely even less — say, 10 knives per day.

If these numbers are accurate (I suspect they result in a generous estimate for rate of production) and if Survive! does not substantially improve their productivity, then knives ordered today with order numbers approaching #12,000 might reasonably be expected to arrive no sooner than two years from now.

Question for those with more knowledge of semi-custom knife manufacture than I:

Is 10 finished knives per day a reasonable production rate for a four-person shop based on a ready supply of pre-finished blanks, scales, sheaths, and packing materials already on hand? It seems awfully slow to me and also seems unlikely to generate sufficient profit after materials/subcontractor costs and overhead to sustain this business model unless everyone’s working for near-minimum wage.
 
I don't like piling on / kicking a man when he's down, etc, but by this stage I feel they should know they're production process well enough to be able to give a pretty accurate estimate of how long it will take to complete the runs that are already in process. The monthly updates have been suggesting that the 7/7s have been shipping fur the last 6 months, yet very few people seems to have them. Would it be too much to give some kind of estimate to those of use who've been waiting 2.5 years with over a grand invested?
 
grogimus said:
but SURVIVE! Ellie SURVIVE! Ellie if you aren't going to expand your staff just do runs of 100 knives or so, you'll still dominate your market.
Click to expand...

That is the whole point of starting the SK Series. We are essentially expanding our staff to handle more demand, by hiring another company to make the SK Series. With that in place, our workshop will mainly work on fulfilling existing GSO preorders and then any future runs will be much smaller.
 
SURVIVE! Ellie said:
That is the whole point of starting the SK Series. We are essentially expanding our staff to handle more demand, by hiring another company to make the SK Series. With that in place, our workshop will mainly work on fulfilling existing GSO preorders and then any future runs will be much smaller.
Click to expand...

That makes sense. I think I got bit by the frustration bug for a second there, all better now.
 
grogimus said:
That makes sense. I think I got bit by the frustration bug for a second there, all better now.
Click to expand...

OK Dan I believe you're letting Ellie off the hook lightly (lol). Hiring another company eases the SK line but not the GSOs in the shop and ones yet to come back for hand finishing. Until additional staff is worked in internally I don't see how the current backlogs will progress any faster.
 
^^ This is the way I see it: with the 3.5 and beyond, Guy will only finish the GSO line starters/pre-orders. No more Factory 2nds, Ugly betty and the rest of Factory firsts that were not pre-sold - these will become the SK Line! IF my guess is true, then that will shorten the time for each GSO batch to go out of S!K shop...
Cheers,
C.
 
scout1sg said:
OK Dan I believe you're letting Ellie off the hook lightly (lol). Hiring another company eases the SK line but not the GSOs in the shop and ones yet to come back for hand finishing. Until additional staff is worked in internally I don't see how the current backlogs will progress any faster.
Click to expand...

I could see how training and hiring people now would be a poor use of time if they'd just be letting the new people go once the backlog gets worked through since they won't have the need for more people with fewer GSO's being produced in the future. Just speculation on my part, I don't know anything about their operations.
 
grogimus said:
I could see how training and hiring people now would be a poor use of time if they'd just be letting the new people go once the backlog gets worked through since they won't have the need for more people with fewer GSO's being produced in the future. Just speculation on my part, I don't know anything about their operations.
Click to expand...

Yes I'd like to get my inside tour of the operation for a first hand account (lol). I do believe things will smooth out but in realistic terms I don't see us getting our GSOs anytime much sooner. Cutting out future offerings until the backlog is caught up is already a good step in that direction but knife turnout on the GSOs is still going to be a slow-go process. Kind of like our Army experiences, "hurry up and wait".
 
Seasonal employees!! :D

Dang do I wish I could fly out there and lend a hand (as if they'd allow me to), but not really a practical possibility :oops: I am content to wait :) But also very excited as more folk here on the forum are reporting shipping notifications!! :thumbsup: Given what a teeny tiny percentage of the S!K customer-base must be present here, that really says something!
 
scout1sg said:
OK Dan I believe you're letting Ellie off the hook lightly (lol). Hiring another company eases the SK line but not the GSOs in the shop and ones yet to come back for hand finishing. Until additional staff is worked in internally I don't see how the current backlogs will progress any faster.
Click to expand...

CataD said:
^^ This is the way I see it: with the 3.5 and beyond, Guy will only finish the GSO line starters/pre-orders. No more Factory 2nds, Ugly betty and the rest of Factory firsts that were not pre-sold - these will become the SK Line! IF my guess is true, then that will shorten the time for each GSO batch to go out of S!K shop...
Cheers,
C.
Click to expand...
Cata, this is a good summary of the original explanation that is now somewhere on the SURVIVE! site. It's true that the new company is not working on the GSOs, but Guy can be better focused on current orders.
 
chiral.grolim said:
Seasonal employees!! :D

Dang do I wish I could fly out there and lend a hand (as if they'd allow me to), but not really a practical possibility :oops: I am content to wait :) But also very excited as more folk here on the forum are reporting shipping notifications!! :thumbsup: Given what a teeny tiny percentage of the S!K customer-base must be present here, that really says something!
Click to expand...

I'll second that motion, I can only do education counseling for so long and in this way I'd be sort a working as an Adjunct Knife Apprentice. Isn't there some sort of saying that if you work your passion it's not really work at all.
 
chiral.grolim said:
Seasonal employees!! :D
Click to expand...
Okay Chiral, your orders can be finished by the temporary help. ;)
Scout, from what Survive has said the GSO 4.1 model run is very large and the remainder of the models scheduled after that one are much smaller.
Based on that information it will take a few months to clear out the GSO 4.1 backlog and then the remainder of the models should ship more quickly.
Knives are Guy's passion but I'm pretty sure that it is hard work as well. :D
 
scout1sg said:
OK Dan I believe you're letting Ellie off the hook lightly (lol). Hiring another company eases the SK line but not the GSOs in the shop and ones yet to come back for hand finishing. Until additional staff is worked in internally I don't see how the current backlogs will progress any faster.
Click to expand...

This:
CataD said:
^^ This is the way I see it: with the 3.5 and beyond, Guy will only finish the GSO line starters/pre-orders. No more Factory 2nds, Ugly betty and the rest of Factory firsts that were not pre-sold - these will become the SK Line! IF my guess is true, then that will shorten the time for each GSO batch to go out of S!K shop...
Cheers,
C.
Click to expand...

and this:
Fancier said:
Okay Chiral, your orders can be finished by the temporary help. ;)
Scout, from what Survive has said the GSO 4.1 model run is very large and the remainder of the models scheduled after that one are much smaller.
Based on that information it will take a few months to clear out the GSO 4.1 backlog and then the remainder of the models should ship more quickly.
Knives are Guy's passion but I'm pretty sure that it is hard work as well. :D
Click to expand...

and this:
As we figure out and fix a lot of the issues that have popped up we are making better parts which go together more easily. With better materials to start with we can spend less time fixing things, making us much more efficient.
 
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