2020 GEC #74 Mustang Thread

knifeswapper said:
(theoretically) OK, we are scheduling a new re-run of an old pattern - how many would you make total?
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reading into this one- I think you make a good point. Honestly I have no idea how anyone would be able to estimate demand of a traditional slip joint anyway! It’s not exactly bread or gasoline.

I think we’re just sore that our friends here will all be competing frantically to get one of these. I love you all, but once those Ironwoods drop you all are dead to me for 10 minutes. 1 minute to frantically get one into cart and pay down the cash, and 9 minutes of belly aching I didn’t get it in time.
 
Nebrasketball said:
I’m no professional cutler, however, I do wish they would have done a 2000 piece run of a medium sized knife like the 74 than a small knife such as the 19. It seems the medium sized, single blade knives are the most popular.
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I wasn’t aware of the size of the new 19 run... was it 2000?
If so that sounds totally backwards.
It’s like having a 800 run of 77s and 2000 run of 06s.
 
EngrSorenson said:
reading into this one- I think you make a good point. Honestly I have no idea how anyone would be able to estimate demand of a traditional slip joint anyway! It’s not exactly bread or gasoline.
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It's easy in 2020; just make what you want to make - they will all sell. But that hasn't always been the case; and it would be silly to think it always will be the case. Most companies don't make policy for the best of times; or the worst of times. Good policy needs to work during all market conditions. The factory has fielded complaints when making 4000 piece runs; and they have fielded complaints when making 1100 piece runs. There is always someone that doesn't agree with any given decision. But there are two things that are at the top of the list when schedule a run. 1) The run needs to be large enough that you are not tooling it in and then just running a few days and tooling it out. Doing this greatly increases the overhead of the tooling for the pattern the less production time you spend on the pattern. I think Bill told me it takes an average of a full day for the company to tool up and prep for a production run. But, B) you don't want to burn your employees out by asking them to make exactly the same model for 3 months either. They have made 4000 piece runs before; which was essentially a 2.5 - 3 month run at the time. I have had Bill tell me, on more than one occasion, how doing these is mentally challenging for craftsmen that love to do new things. And you will also lose customers if you are only making 4-5 patterns per year.

My point is that Bill has a really good track record on making the decisions that keep 31 skilled workers employed. So, who better to make those decisions that the same guy that is going to succeed or fail by the outcome of those decisions. It is a complex algorithm; but I think it should be approached like a game if you think it is easy. At your computer (or mobile device) decide how many of a brand new pattern you think would be a good number to make. Then figure you can make @100 knives a day with 30 employees. Calculate how much profit you, and then your resellers, need to make on each knife to make it actually worth doing. Then make all the numbers flush out. OK, you draw the covid card and are shut down for 45 days and the next 6 months are at 75% capacity due to unemployment incentives, people had to find new work, etc. Things get back to normal and money is flowing again; then you draw the market downturn card. 40% of your end customers no longer expendable income; so your inventory increases by 20% of production a month for 2 years. It would be a fun game to play - but I would not want to live it.
 
knifeswapper said:
(theoretically) OK, we are scheduling a new re-run of an old pattern - how many would you make total?
Click to expand...

You would have a much better guess at this than any of us, I just think a medium sized single bladed knife is something that almost everyone who likes GEC's is interested in. In the end my opinion doesnt really matter, these are going to sell out, and GEC will move on to the next run. I'm excited for the 19, but I'm assuming there is more of a desire for the 74s vs the 19 so the production numbers seem oddly skewed. That being said the 19 early reserves seemed to close just as fast as the rest of the recent runs, so maybe theyll all be snapped up as well on regular drops and none of our opining will matter.
 
bbfish said:
You would have a much better guess at this than any of us, I just think a medium sized single bladed knife is something that almost everyone who likes GEC's is interested in. In the end my opinion doesnt really matter, these are going to sell out, and GEC will move on to the next run. I'm excited for the 19, but I'm assuming there is more of a desire for the 74s vs the 19 so the production numbers seem oddly skewed. That being said the 19 early reserves seemed to close just as fast as the rest of the recent runs, so maybe theyll all be snapped up as well on regular drops and none of our opining will matter.
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I understand your thinking; but before getting aggravated look at it from other angles. There are those that love a watchpocket knife. Or a nice smaller knife in a slip that fits comfortably in the bottom of the pocket. They have been waiting for years for a sub-3" knife.

But, again, I think with all the decisions and plans that go into each run - you might be over thinking the why's and what's. GEC has always made smaller runs if they are just add-on to somebody's sfo. But I have talked to Bill enough to know that he didn't just pull the production number from the air.
 
knifeswapper said:
It is a complex algorithm; but I think it should be approached like a game if you think it is easy. At your computer (or mobile device) decide how many of a brand new pattern you think would be a good number to make.
Click to expand...

I definitely don't think it's easy, but just back-of-the-envelope, assuming normal operation? I'll play, just for funsies (at risk of offending people for what there time and skill is worth)...

Figuring full day for retooling, $20/hr labor, $30/knife Materials, 100 knives per day per 30 employees, 10% margin, $7 per knife for distributors (sorry Mike), Discounting whole bunches of things like electricity, maintenance, losses to QC, and whole bunches of stuff which is almost insulting to the industry...

my answer is:
10 business days + one for retooling: 1000 knives, $98 per knife into the mailbox.
Increasing the number of knives produced decreases the startup cost impact for a particular line.

Obviously I took lots of liberties, and I targeted the knife cost to be approximately what we pay.
 
I was really hoping to score one of the burlaps. If anyone wants to trade for a micarta B&S #35, let me know.
 
Anyways..... can’t wait to get that 74 burlap mustang!
I even like the shield.
My first mustang. Hope it’s snappy.
 
Stag...

IMG_2627.jpg
 
I'm surprised at the response these are getting, I just remember when the 43 came out in 2018 they didn't seem quite as popular, which I suppose the smaller run combined with the smaller more pocket friendly size might be the reason, but still. Anyone got a picture of a 74 vs a 43? I can't remember the measurements off the top of my head, what is it 4 1/4 and 3 7/8 ?
 
Dang, I had one in my cart and got a work call answered said give me a sec, and bam out of stock. Oh well you live and learn I suppose.
 
EngrSorenson said:
I definitely don't think it's easy, but just back-of-the-envelope, assuming normal operation? I'll play, just for funsies (at risk of offending people for what there time and skill is worth)...

Figuring full day for retooling, $20/hr labor, $30/knife Materials, 100 knives per day per 30 employees, 10% margin, $7 per knife for distributors (sorry Mike), Discounting whole bunches of things like electricity, maintenance, losses to QC, and whole bunches of stuff which is almost insulting to the industry...

my answer is:
10 business days + one for retooling: 1000 knives, $98 per knife into the mailbox.
Increasing the number of knives produced decreases the startup cost impact for a particular line.

Obviously I took lots of liberties, and I targeted the knife cost to be approximately what we pay.
Click to expand...

I like it! So you feel that 1100 Mustang's are sufficient?
 
Hey Mike, do you know if any of the other knives have shipped to dealers besides the Burlap, I haven't been paying to close attention but I didn't think so, but maybe I'm mistaken.
 
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