Sam's probably going to win, just by being fat and lazy, as all the other winners have managed it. If he does, it's going to kill the show. I"ve heard that if you take the Signal multitool, you have to first remove the ferrorod. I'd have to add a file blade. or take the Crunch tool instead. Randy starved, cause he was dumb enough to waste 2 weeks of prime net-fishing season to build a cabin that he was never going to need. By far the shelter for winter in Mongolia is a small dugout, stuffed full of dry grass, so that you dont need a fire to stay warm enough. You need to catch 600 lbs of fish, and store most of it as your bodyfat. You also need to set baited treblehooks for predators, make snares for deer, take the duct tape and the 3 lb block of salt. Take a slingbow, not a bow or slingshot. Make netting out of a tarp, use it as a seine and as baited net-weirs. Fowler says to take the Cold Steel shovel, instead of the axe, and I say that if you make an 8" saw edge on the shovel, you need not take the saw, either. You dont need the sleeping bag, the cookpot, or the ferrorod, either, if you know what to take and do.
Every season, they get several thousand more entrants. The producers dont want people who can make this challenge last more than 3 months, cause it cuts into their profit margin. Anyone who's got 60 lbs of bodyfat, which you DO if you're 6 ft and 220 lbs, can easily just lay around for 2 months in a sleeping bag, on just their bodyfat. Ditto if you weigh 190 and last 40 days. So anyone who taps out sooner is just a wuss. A small woman who foraged almost nothing lasted 86 days in season 3.