Upon furhter reflection;
OK, give me some details of your burner that you made, like pipe diameter and oriface size. From what I remember, I have a 1.5 to 3/4 reducer going into a 3/4 pipe (8 inches long) with a number 59 hole for an oriface. I gave up a long time ago on the burner flare do-hickey. But I do not think your problems are with generating a reducing atmosphere. You should be O.K. on that point as long as your forge has a good roar to it.
Pre-heating the anvil is a good practice, but it is not going to be detrimental to your forge welding especially if you are down in TX. Up hear in Michigan, with my forge in the basement, I never pre-heat my anvil until my basement temp hits below 45 °F.
Hit the steel the same each time you strike it. There is not a hit 2 to 3 times and then dwell, it is all in sieries. Hit, dwell, hit, dwell, etc. But it is also not easily explained. You will get the feel for it, trust me. Don't rap at it, just hit it, but not too hard, and once yu make contact with the billet, apply pressure with the hammer face for a fraction of a second.
Like Peter said, it is like riding a bike. Once you feel it, you will know. Keep trying and it will work. Low to mild carbon is a Bit$%. Take me up on my offer to send you some high carbon to practice with and you wil be a pro before you know it.
I have only been doing this "thing" for a few years, but you will eventually get to know when the billet is ready for welding. After a while doing it, it will tell you when it is ready. It becomes more of a feeling than anything else. Now don't get me wrong though, it isn't easy.
I still get frustrated when I try to set my initial weld on the billet and I get a split down the center, or even worse, when you think you have developed the greatest pattern ever and you go to grind it and find a cold shut and the whole thing is junk.
Just make sure you only show pictures of the good stuff...