Hmmm...if we're dreaming, I always wanted a knife that would actually leap into my hand, without requiring me to have 10 pounds of machinery up my sleeve. A memory-metal blade that would assume different shapes based on a current passing through it would be nice, too. Possibly if it could have a microserrated edge that would actually move continuously like a chainsaw.
In the more immediate future, I think the new crop of locks is going to dominate inside of five years...probably the Axis is supreme, but the RL will be more widespread because of patent issues. That's a problem for custom makers, because both are trickier for a small shop than the liner-locks that were so rapidly and wholeheartedly embraced. I expect custom pieces to be largely liner-locks for some time longer.
I expect to see a return to quality finished pieces, away from tactical junk. I have held more knives by supposed "big-time" makers that had poor fits, scraping actions, and a 5-minute crappy bead-blast finish; I don't think the buyers are going to be blind to this much longer. It's fine in a "using knife" like a Benchmade or Spyderco, but production companies are getting so good with their high-end models that there will be no point to buy such a rough-finished, "tactical" using piece from a custom maker. That will mean makers return to what only they can do - unique pieces in interesting materials and very high degrees of fit and polish. This will go along with the custom makers sticking to liner-locks, because these are better suited to a gent's knife than a hard-use piece, at least when RLs and Axis-locks are available.
I wonder if the new crop of "super-materials" will mean the end of the forged using blade? Used to be that nothing could compare to a well-hammered piece of differentially treated carbon steel, but now I don't know. Bladesmith's won't be in any trouble, though, as Damascus just keeps getting bigger and bigger.
One final thing I can't call - the bottom end of the fixed-blade market. Will people stop paying $75 for a sharpened chunk of metal with a bead-blast and a cord wrapped around it because it's "custom," and buy a nice Recon Tanto or something instead? Or will they go for the handmade knife, however simple, where all of their money goes into getting the best possible steel well-treated, and none of their money goes into making videos and shouting from the rooftops? I think there is no skill or craftsmanship in these "bare bones" pieces, and I don't understand what those makers get out of creating them, but they may be a better "bang for the buck" than similarly priced production knives. I can't guess where that market's going to go.
Well, that was my usual "brief" opinion
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-Corduroy
(Why else would a bear want a pocket?)
