Random Thought Thread

Still trying to understand how this differs from the typical frenzied sales :p

:eek: Maybe it's the same thing, just BladeForum's server is doing the lottery draw in real time.

IMO what you describe isn’t a problem.

It’s extremely unrealistic that a bunch of people, or anyone will bid $2000. But if they do, and Nathan sells 10 $500 knives for $20,000, do you really think he won’t make more?

I'd love to meet the person who manages to convince Nathan to do something for only money. Hey, I have $2k, can I order a Shiv? How about $10k for a dagger?

Do you think that there is a market for an unlimited supply at $2000?

You're assuming supply is unlimited. I know the supply is limited. If the supply was unlimited we wouldn't be arguing about this, right?

I’d bet no one will pay $2000 with a hope to resell at a profit. If they did, they would be pushed out of the brand and we’re all the better for it.

I'll bet you $5 you're wrong. Hell make it $10.

The larger the batch, the lower the market price will be via Vickery auction.

See above, supply is limited and this is a desirable item. If we disagree on such a foundational issue I hesitate to continue this line of conversation since it will be exceedingly unproductive.

I think CPK as an entity should take more value at the initial sale vs secondary market sellers taking that profit.

I think this runs counter to CPK's (often stated) focus which is highest value for the money in an item meant to be used. CPK also don't attract many folks of the "active secondary market" persuasion.
 
I'd love to meet the person who manages to convince Nathan to do something for only money. Hey, I have $2k, can I order a Shiv? How about $10k for a dagger?

You're assuming supply is unlimited. I know the supply is limited. If the supply was unlimited we wouldn't be arguing about this, right?

I'll bet you $5 you're wrong. Hell make it $10.

See above, supply is limited and this is a desirable item. If we disagree on such a foundational issue I hesitate to continue this line of conversation since it will be exceedingly unproductive.

I think this runs counter to CPK's (often stated) focus which is highest value for the money in an item meant to be used. CPK also don't attract many folks of the "active secondary market" persuasion.


This is mostly straw man and arguing the exception.

I didn’t say “something only for money”.

Last I checked there were Friday sales, not Friday give aways. Money is a critical part of the equation.

Yes, if you post you will pay $2000 for a Shiv I promise you will have one offered to you tonight, and CPK made it. You might even get a wood handle.

If you want a project knife then yes you can email him and offer him $10,000 and if he is so inclined to agree to your terms then you may end up with one.

Maybe the line is already too long. I haven’t been around enough recently to know if there is a project in the works, but I know the last one took years to come to fruition and that’s basically how the deal was done.

If you want to argue the exception that no one can make him do anything strictly for money, well that’s a stupid argument. I bet you can get him to do something for only money.

Take your above example. Offer him your $10,000 for a project knife and if he declines, change only the money variable by offering him more till he agrees. I promise you will come up with an amount he will agree to if you keep going up.

He has a business to run, employees to pay and a family to raise. Money is essential to this equation. I bet he’ll make any knife you want for the right price. Offer him $1,000,000. Sounds stupid? Well that’s arguing the exception.

Nathan has done several re-run of patterns based on popular demand, while some patterns have not been revisited. Production numbers have gone up massively over the last few years.

Some of those patterns were discontinued because he was bored of making them, he had other projects he wanted to move on to and sometimes some aspect of the necessary tooling was gone or altered.

Nathan’s stated goal for a long time was to reach the point of having stock on the shelf ready to fulfill an order. His intention was never stated as limited runs of exclusives. I think the best example of that is the FK2.

For a while flippers were a huge problem, but when was the last time you saw a FK2 flipped for a profit?

What was the asking price the last time you saw a D2 skinner for sale?

Why do you think there is a difference there?

If your conclusion is there will only be 40 of these specific daggers because Nathan said they were inefficient to make, what factors did he consider when drawing that conclusion?

If you think he didn’t consider how much he thinks they are worth, I’d bet you are wrong.

I’ll paraphrase here, but Nathan said basically that the reason he doesn’t want his knives priced too high is the increased expectations at the increased price point. He doesn’t want someone to be disappointed with the value of the purchase.

The market price discovery issue has been discussed here for years.

edit: I’m not speaking for Nathan. I’m just making predictions based on my observations.
 
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For Sale:

Up for grabs is one BIGDORK scored for me in a recent Friday sale...

she's a sleek thoroughbred, but this philly's just not a horse for my course:

DEK1 in AEB-L with unbuffed Tri-Color Rag Micarta handles, Titanium Fasteners, and Mashed Cat Kydex pancake, unused....SOLD $335 <all in, Priority TYD>.

I’ll take that, PM sent and funds sent. Thanks brother!
Don't ever get in a quick-draw competition with Grenock (knife listed at 7:23 pm, scooped up by Grenock at 7:24 pm)! :eek:;):D
 
The people who are consistently fast winners on Friday sales want to keep things status quo.
The people who consistently lose on Friday sales want to change the status quo.
The people who benefit from existing rules want them carved into stone tablets.
The people who suffer under existing rules want new rules even if they can’t define the advantage.
Such is human nature.
The “Me First” movement preceded all the recent social justice movements by thousands of years.

I personally have no need for a boot dagger, so I will not be trying for one.
Unless I become a flipper looking to take advantage and price gouge my friends here.
I am not a flipper.
I value my friends and the good-natured camaraderie here more than the cost associated with getting any knife.

Good luck to all of you in your quest for a Boot Dagger. I’ll be watching from the sidelines. I hope things can remain lighthearted and fun for all involved.

Phil

Thanks for saving me from typing all that. :) Well said.

I’ve said multiple times I’m in favor of a random draw. It’s really the only way to give everyone a fair chance.

The keyboard ninja thing favors a consistent select few. There are some very loyal, long time customers who will never score on a high demand Friday sale.
 
This is mostly straw man and arguing the exception.

Perhaps my logic wasn't very soundly stated. Stated more clearly (and putting aside some philosophical arguments for the moment, which I think we're generally 100% on the same page regarding there being a $X figure that probably works for some effect):

1. There's not a lot of these likely to be made now or in the future.
2. Various lottery/auction/sealed bid type setups are unlikely to improve the status quo for those feel it's unfair.

He has a business to run, employees to pay and a family to raise. Money is essential to this equation. I bet he’ll make any knife you want for the right price. Offer him $1,000,000. Sounds stupid? Well that’s arguing the exception.

I wasn't arguing money is immaterial. I was arguing that as part of the equation I think that point #1 (not a lot, not likely to be made more of) will not change measurably based on the price extracted in the primary sale. I could be wrong and some sort of auction is the way to go.
 
A few more quick thoughts, though I think you over indexed on the money thing (perhaps because of my less-than-sound logical statements).

What was the asking price the last time you saw a D2 skinner for sale?

No idea. Could you draw the conclusion for me? I may have simpler thoughts than you expect.

If you think he didn’t consider how much he thinks they are worth, I’d bet you are wrong.

I'd bet right alongside you.

I’ll paraphrase here, but Nathan said basically that the reason he doesn’t want his knives priced too high is the increased expectations at the increased price point. He doesn’t want someone to be disappointed with the value of the purchase.

I agree with this philosophy and find it consistently demonstrated very clearly.

I think CPK as an entity should take more value at the initial sale vs secondary market sellers taking that profit.

But then there's this statement, which kinda sounds like "they should charge more, let's run an auction." Maybe it's more fair. Maybe it's not. Who am I to judge. These are troubles I'm glad I don't have.

My core thought is that no matter what way an item is sold if there is more demand than supply there will be unhappy folks. Trying to solve for reducing the number of unhappy folks without increasing the supply is difficult.
 
The keyboard ninja thing favors a consistent select few. There are some very loyal, long time customers who will never score on a high demand Friday sale.

these people are recognized and appreciated and are the prime reason why we do pre-orders for popular patterns that are not being satisfied in regular Friday sales. We will have a DEK1 pre-order this Friday for this reason. It will help cool things down and allow the sales to progress in a more sane manner.
 
I optioned a new 1/2 ton truck today. It came out to 67k. I closed the browser.

Yup, it's crazy how it all escalates when options are added. Used car prices are through the roof and the exact reverse of what most non-experts (yours truly) were predicting at the outset of COVID-19 has shaped the current used car market.

Word to the wise, be very careful making outrageous "want" purchases if that stretches your budget. While it is very true that there will be a shortage of newer vehicles rolling off the assembly line (supply curve) the demand may very well become very tenuous based on future's unpredictability. I remain bearish.
 
I optioned a new 1/2 ton truck today. It came out to 67k. I closed the browser.
That’s all? I priced out a 150 and ended up at 65K. The 250/350’s were well above 70k, even saw one on the lot for 83K. I ended up with a 150, again. Should’ve never sold that diesel 350, I still miss that truck.
Seems like a good time to crack a beer and then trying to write a country song. Damn trucks used to be a good deal before they became comfy everyday grocery getters- that’ll also be the working song title ;)
 
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