The Fallacy of Bugging Out

CWL said:
Can't really utilize ice when you no longer have refrigeration.

People will barter hard for booze, tobacco and ammunition.
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There's always a run on ice when the power's out. People need to keep things like meds refrigerated. That means ice in a cooler. Bartering in the stuff you mentioned would draw the wrong crowd to barter with. ;)
 
We're "ice rich" for much of the year. My "bug-out plan" is to have a horse-drawn ice delivery service.
 
fmajor007 said:
Thank you for your input Neeman - I've been waiting for your comment on these types of threads!

I lived in Bosnia for 7 years and in Sarajevo for 4.5 of them. Those folks *had* to "bug-in" - there was no bugging out. I have pages and pages of notes and hundreds of photographs on how folks managed to survive during the siege there from 1992-1995. My friends shared their experiences and learned lessons openly with me and I can tell you that much of what is glamorized here on the internet has utterly nothing to do with real life experience. Bugging out is a temporary situation at best - and this is presuming a "safe" destination and a lack of aggressive, organized, equipped antagonists.

For bugging in for any length of time greater than a day, medications (especially those which are required for day-to-day living) are obviously #1 and followed closely by a large stock of antibiotics and other sterile medical supplies. The means to attain and/or sources of potable water are second which are then followed closely by safe/nutritious food. Otherwise, one of the greatest resources is having good relationships with neighbors and friends (as well as the ability to communicate with your friends if they don't live close by).
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Thanks

So the focus can be displaced by war or natural disaster
Where the govenment will come thru with help, but not yet....
 
The way I see it, we can break this down a bit we have three basic scenarios:
Societal collapse: I'm not worried about this so much, I don't think it would be a total over-night failure. Possibly a slow-burn sort of thing, and times would be tough, but I don't think anyone is going to suddenly wake up to find a thunderdome being built next door, and mustang interceptors running bandits off the highway. Even if the grid dropped and we got nuked or something, the basic things that make civilization would still be there. Some would use it as an excuse to go off the rails, but once things settled down, we'd all find a new role to play, and a new community to be part of. (of course that might mean getting to know your neighbors.)

Fast natural disaster: Flash flooding, brush fire, industrial incident, even a simple house fire. This is the grab and go, head count and roll situation. As I've said before, this is the one very few people are prepared for, will you have time to grab your contacts, pills and your little ones blanky? The kind of stuff you are going to want is the stuff that makes those first few days at the shelter or motel bearable. Help will be there, as it will likely be a very localized incident, but there will be NO time to react. This is where the Get Home Kit at the office is important, knowing what you might face, and how you can best respond to that situation. Even if its just having running shoes and some safety glasses, those are tools that let you exit the danger area, and then sort life out.

Slow-burn natural disaster. Something that we can see coming at least 12 hours in advance, something that you should be able to get everyone home for. Snow storms, hurricanes, and that sort of thing. You are on your own for a while, but with prep you should do fine. This can turn into the Fast disaster type in a hurry if something fails. The slow burn is a hard one to judge, since bugging out well before hand is probably the best option if possible. If the fire turns, are you and your garden hose really going to save your house? no, should have had the car loaded and ready to go when there was still just smoke on the horizon. But every disaster is different, the point is to have thought out for yourself, what would prompt you to leave, or what is worth staying for and riding out at home. But again, we are not talking about bugging out to the wilderness, its going to be bugging out to a friends house a few hours away, or the high school gym, or whatever.

I am totally in the camp that bugging out to the bush as a goal is a bad idea. Of course some of the folks I've heard talk about that option may have influenced my thoughts, I'll feel a lot safer the farther from town those guys are! (present company excluded of course, some of you guys are a bit nuts, but thats not a bad thing)
 
I'm telling you this level headedness is going to get us banned from several sites- no gov't overtake, no zombies, no thunderdome- where's the fun in that? :D
 
Interesting topic and one I have given some thought to. I agree that for 99.9% of the population, bugging out the the wilderness without a pre-prepared, secluded and secure location would be akin to a miserable suicide. (BTW- I am not in the .01%, but with I was) That being said, I can think of several senarios where NOT bugging out would lead to death. From natural disasters, to far less likely but still possible man-made events. For those with a preparedness mindest beyond carrying a PSK while in the wilderness, a sound stragegy would be enough items in your vehicle to get you home if need be, a BOB to get you out of your home to a safer location if need be, and a well stocked home to bug in as the situation dictates. Being alert and flexible will always be a requirement. I don't think anyone can say with any certainty that staying home is the best strategy as opposed to "bugging out" being a fallacy. For me personally, I feel well on my way to providing safety for my family in the event of a major event. This includes bugging out to the wilderness, with my family, but to a pre-prepared, safe and secure location.
 
sideways said:
Here are some interesting articles about the implications of bugging out. It should be an interesting read.

http://survivalacres.com/blog/the-fallacy-of-bugging-out/
http://survivalacres.com/blog/the-fallacy-of-bugging-out-part-ii/

I tend to agree with the author that bugging out to live in the woods is a very bad idea. By doing so you are replicating hunter gatherer culture in an industrialized world. Worse most guys would be doing it "cold" without the benefit of having grown up in a hunter gatherer environment, in settings that could not support a many hunter gatherers anyway. The fact is that nature has been depleted to support our way of life. Population density has gone up and natural diversity has gone down. A lot.

Living the life of a hunter gatherer could be done for a day, maybe a week, at most until others caught on. The first guys out would leverage modern technology (think large scale fishing, firearms, traps, nets) and grab all the available game. It happened with the buffalo. The rest would be forced to fight over the scraps. To me it's a completely unsustainable survival strategy and I don't understand why so many people are drawn to it. To plan to put yourself in that situation, where there is no plan for where the next meal will come from...

Bugging out to me is about relocating to another location where the prospects are better, but still staying within society. Like getting out of the way of a hurricane, fire, or the in-laws. :D

Thoughts?
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Yes, here's a thought: a lot of those folks would benefit from a psychological evaluation instead of building underground bunkers and other horse crap. Just a thought.
 
Smithhammer wonders why there is not more discussion about group survival. The answer I feel is in the nature of this forum, where this forum is, and the way the question was asked. Groups I think tend to use the term ‘preservation’ more then ‘survivalist’ or ‘bug out’. I live in a village in Alaska where we have community meetings and a group called “WIN” that meets for 2 hours every week and has for about 10 years, that discusses the survival of our community as a group. We have experts come talk to us about putting up food, alternate sources of energy if we have no fuel, and topics related to who has what skills, how we can put it all to use in the event of an emergency or disaster. One big issue is “What would we do if we got cut off from the rest of civilization?” People who hold such thoughts as a priority in their life can find areas, entire communities of like minded people. Those who feel the subject is hogwash can join areas and groups of like minded people. I personally believe in diversity.


-I think we need to keep in perspective, this discussion is on a knife forum. It’s supposed to be somehow knife related. Those who feel a knife is part of what will save them is expected to be a high % of discussion here. This may not represent the general population. I’m only saying, please do not lose hope and give up on society if your dream is of peace and survival in groups and banding together.

I recall an entire society building and living with the concept of bomb shelters in the 60’s. Along with what should be stockpiled in them, as part of children’s education in school. There were practice drills. I also recall the ‘tune in and drop out’ groups who went off to form communes in the wilds, as a way to survive the evils of ‘whatever’. I do not recall hearing of any that were successful and workable, though I do agree they predicted the future quite accurately, and had reasons for concern.
 
Well now we are going from what is a bad strategy to what is a good strategy. The world ending or overnight dictatorships is not something I worry about. Getting cut off from the system is. The scenario could range from a short term localized problem like a power outage or fire, to a regional event like a natural disaster or war. The options then are stay or go. The answer as always is, it depends.

Leaving your home to live in the woods is a bad survival strategy for reasons already discussed. If circumstances force you to move it should be about getting out of the immediate area affected; to a neighbors house, across town, to another city, another state, or another country if needs be. Getting out is a last resort though, with a bit of foresight most storms can be weathered, and to that end building communities is key. A modern society is after all just the community concept refined to a highly efficient point.

Communities come in many sizes. You have the family, extended family, friends, colleges, town, country and so on. I guess the problem many people have these days, and the reason they are looking at lone wolf strategies, is they do not feel like they are part of a larger community. Maybe.

At the time this thread started another one on gardening popped up but has now been pushed back a few pages. Check it out as well.
 
I think you're right that most people do not feel they are part of a larger community when disaster preping is involved. I think in terms of me and mine. I would adjust from that perspective as need and the situation dictates.

People think of a dog eat dog situation when it comes to "city folk". That is the way many cities are... competition. In a real disaster that you can't jump in your car to avoid, the whole preparedness scenario changes.
 
Interesting discussion! I've skimmed most of the thread (short attention span, I guess) and I agree that bugging-in/hunkering down in the vast majority of situations is best. I started keeping some blankets, clothes, gear (BK-2, firemaking items, E-tool), and food (MREs) in my truck around the time of the major snowstorms that hit the northeast in 2009 and 2010. The idea wasn't to bug out to someplace, it was to either get myself and my truck off the road to someplace like a parking lot or, better yet, parking garage until the roads were better and most of the dang fools were off the roads (most in northern VA have no clue about driving in snow) or to get someplace if, for some bizarre reason, I wasn't near a good building. I'd stay warm, fed, and watered in my truck until I could move out. It was more about getting home, not surviving in the wild.

During an assignment in Turkey, we were all told to have a BOB of some kind since the area was earthquake prone. Again, the idea was to have your own stuff like clothing, first aid, food, water, etc. that would help you get to someplace better and keep you for a while as relief came. I'm a reasonably smart guy and I can figure some things out but I'm not heading out to the wilderness.
 
I posted this in a thread on another forum earlier today:
Cougar Allen said:
It's hard to make suggestions without understanding what kind of scenario you're preparing for..... I keep some gear in my car. One reason is in case I have to evacuate my home suddenly. That can happen to anyone -- the place catches fire, or they knock on your door and tell you a truck carrying hazardous chemicals has overturned and you have to leave the area immediately.

I also keep a backpack in the car, in case I break down and have to leave the car and go home. One time my transmission blew up far from home on the hottest day of the year, and if I hadn't had plenty of water and a way to carry it I would have had a problem.

Looking like I'm carrying an army surplus bag would not be a problem for me. As far as how I look goes, I'd rather look like a respectable gentleman whose car has broken down than like a drunken bum, but that's about all I'm concerned about -- looking reasonably respectable.

Around here at least (Western Massachusetts) the homeless drunks and panhandlers and street people don't usually carry a backpack or any kind of bag. (They must stash their stuff somewhere, I guess.) So just carrying a backpack or shoulder bag makes you look more respectable. If it looks like a soft briefcase that's a plus, but plenty of respectable gentlemen carry backpacks, anything from a book bag to a full-size backpack with a rolled foam pad lashed to the outside. Respectable people go backpacking these days. Respectable people carry a laptop computer and stuff to the office in a backpack instead of a briefcase, too, at least around here.
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There seems to be a lot of prepping going on for scenarios that I don't really understand. Some people are afraid to use a BOB with molle on it because they're afraid they'll "stand out." Some of them say more specifically they think someone else will murder them in the hope there's something worth stealing in that tactical-looking bag. One guy in that thread is talking about walking around the city with a shotgun slung on his chest. Another guy says if he does that someone with a rifle will shoot him from a distance. I don't know if they're preparing for a video game or a movie ... something with zombies or terminator robots from the future or surf nazis or all three at the same time.... :confused:

Others seem to think they don't need a bug out bag, apparently because they aren't expecting zombies or terminator robots -- but what if your house catches fire or your car breaks down? :confused:

What is this obsession with what you're going to look like? All kinds of people go out in public every day, wearing all kinds of different clothes, carrying all kinds of different gear ... no one shoots them. :confused:
 
Common sense dictates that one should have some very basic needs (shelter-fire/clothing/water/first aid/food/etc) covered in a easy to access bag, this applies to any environ- urban or rural, desert or mountain (certainly some of the "supplies" may differ depending on the environ)- no one is immune to natural disaster or man made disaster

Not surprisingly, some have taken this to the extreme- often spending a large percentage of their disposable income on gear that is of little to no use Not surprising either, they don't/won't take the time to develop a basic skill set that would help in a time of disaster

I think your video game/movie hypothesis is probably closer to the truth than one would want to imagine
 
Lets get our head out of the sand here. In no way will we be able to live like we live know if it gets to the level you are talking about. We as sons and fathers have a responsibility to take care of our parents if local and our children first. It will be very hard for 80 year olds and small children to BUG OUT. So do this: for the next 30 days compile a list of everything you consume from gas to female products. Then multiply that by 12. I would say 95% of the people can not store that much gear. You just don't have the room. Add up your yearly water consumption off your water bill for a year. You will be shocked. A years worth of freeze dried food for a family of 5 for a year??? The ones who will be the best prepared are those selling this stuff. The smartest thing we can do is to work as hard as possible to keep our infrastructure operational!!!! Comments welcome
 
Bugging out to live solo in the woods is stupid.

Bugging out from areas within a hurricane's path that could be subjected to storm surge is smart.
 
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