How has the custom knife world changed recently?

Joss

Joss

Joined
Nov 20, 2001
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This is a repost from a separate thread.

I'm curious to hear from others how the custom knife business has changed in the last few years. I only started collecting, oh, seven years ago, and only very seriously the last 4 to 5 years. What I've witnessed in that time are:
1) Huge price increase for some top ABS bladesmiths
2) Large number of newbies with a level of skill commensurate with many of the well established makers. Some of those newbies have a pricing commensurate with their skills (as opposed to their tenure).
3) Large bowie knives now seem to represent 1/3 to 1/2 of the production. Daggers have all but disappeared. Forged integrals and semi-integrals are popular.
4) Quite a few well put together web-based retailers, with great inventory. Generally, the web's importance has increased tremendously, with makers investing significant time developing the presence and the skills (photography in particular)
5) As far as I can see, the tactical movement is becoming tired, but arguably this is not a big focus of mine.
6) The hamon is catching up (or has already caught up) with damascus in terms of prestige.
 
I'm copying below Anthony's response in the other thread:

Anthony Lombardo said:
Hi Joss, that is great question. Maybe we should start another thread as I think you would get a lot of input..

I have been a collector for 15 years, serious into some higher end semi custom/production and custom for 10-12 years and have focused more on ABS style knives for 5-7 years. In 1998 or so I realized that I really enjoyed collecting the "one off", sole authorship, bigger knives. I also realized that there was a limit to how many knives a Dean, Fisk, Fogg, Fitch, Newton etc. could make in the course of their lifetime and that also appealed to me. There is a downside to that though--a makers who makes 50 knives a year can become an unknown maker in a relatively short period of time if the same 10 customers consistently buy all those 50 knives!

I look for knives by exceptional JS smiths and better MS's that I have a certain look. Of course I obsess more over fit and finish than performance as very few knives in my collection will ever be used. I have branched out a bit to apprentice smiths that are serious and already have establishe a unique style. There are many good knives. The best makers all have delivery times.

I have also seen these trends in the ABS style knives-
-big jump in price by the best MS's. Demand is driving this in many cases. When you are 3-5-7 years behind on knives, the value always goes up. More of these makers are retiring from real jobs and need more income or getting older and cannot produce as many pieces as they did a few years ago, also driving prices up.

-Embellishment is also driving up the price. I believe the internet has brought additional higher-end collectors to the game and as a result makers have started carving and engraving more often,building more premium knives and using more damascus.

-Better quality from Apprentice/JS makers in order to differentiate their knives and establish themselves. Think Jason Knight, Dan Farr, Russ Andrews, Nick Wheeler, Shawn McIntyre-are all making better knives now than some MS makers are capable of as the market has demanded it!
Competition from the boys from Brazil has also increased quality and pushed the MS's to make better knives, or in some cases, none at all.

-Lack of hunters/boot knives. Many maker make fewer hunters than they did 5 years ago. A hunter may need to sell for half the price of a big knife, but is usually NOT half the work. Five years ago, A Newton Damascus & Stag hunter could be had for $500 on AZCK. I only buy hunters for my collection if a makers work is absolutely unobtanium grade like Fisk or Crowell or Russ Andrews for example. I recently bought two custom hunters from Adam Desrosiers with 01/L6 damascus, bronze guards and blackwood and moose handles. Great sheaths.These are for using, I am not going to use a $1,000 hunter to skin a deer with!

-I think there exists a subset of the ABS that will wither somewhat-the part of the new maker market that I call-IWTBF. (I Want To Be Fisk).

How many new makers are making knives that are emulating Mr. Jerry's? I am not suggesting they are riding his coattails, but trying too hard to emulate his style to forge their path to success. I think better collectors will be buying less "Fisk copies" in the future and more works by new smiths that better showcase their own self-developed talents and styles.

-Mosaic damascus? Whats that? Seriously, I think its days in bigger knives are numbered.
Click to expand...
 
1) Forgers are continually improving in basic areas such as blade finish, grinding cleanliness, and fit. This is driving up the desirability of the forged blade, some great values continue to be had.

2) Newbies have been driving up the prices of knives for the last 10 years. Those that have made it in that 10 years represent good buys, those that have not represent good buys for using knives, if nothing else, I guess.:eek:

3) " Forged integrals and semi-integrals are popular."

Nobody seems to be doing it quite as well as the stock removal guys in this area yet. We will see. Bowies are losing steam this year. I strongly thing that slim sub 8" fighters and daggers in the fixed blade market are the next wave. They are hard to make and as the current generation of makers develop skills, I think we will see a lot more dagger grinds. The bowie market exploded upwards in the last 5 years, I will agree wholeheartedly with that statement.

4) While we have seen a large growth in web based cutlery retailers, I think the herd, just like the current crop of knifemakers is due for a thinning. Too many of the high profile e-tailers have no clue about successful busines, have outside funding that is winnowing, or are playing THIS game wrong(ie no trades, way too high markup to sustain in the long run...)

5) "As far as I can see, the tactical movement is becoming tired, but arguably this is not a big focus of mine."

Definitely not tired, but tiring. There are still some great new tac makers, and one can look at Onion as a standard bearer, while the aftermarket for his knives is cooling, it is not in the freezer yet.

6) "The hamon is catching up (or has already caught up) with damascus in terms of prestige."

I think good damascus will always command top dollar, talking good like Rados Turkish Twist, well done Raindrop, ladder pattern...The pictures in steel, maybe, hopefully that is played out.

Some do hamons very well, others not so much. The simple presence of a hamon is not enough to drive up the price of a knife. The presence of a spectacular hamon like Fogg, Foster or Fikes most often do IS a reason to pay more for the piece, but only if the rest of the knife is as good as the hamon(Not always the case).

7) The use of precious metal mokume gane, shakudo, shibuichi, wrought iron and damascus specially prepared for fittings has taken off like a rocket in the last 5 years, which makes me very happy.

8) The internet has allowed the dissemination of information to take place at a geometrically proportional rate, so that collectors and makers are able to communicate in a mutually consistent language, and get pictures and ideas out there quicker. This is also a good thing in my book.

9) Radically unusual blade shapes. many very geometric and angular(Anso, Onion, Ralph, Schempp...) have proliferated in the last 5 years in the custom market, and it is starting to wash over into the production market. Not sure how I feel about this, but it is a change.

10) SWORDS-specifically Japanese, awareness has grown in the last five years like wildfire. Unfortunately for the collector, prices from good American makers have grown proportionally high as well, except in a few rare cases, which I am not sharing, sorry. Guys like Barrett, Clark, DiChristofano, Graham:barf: are cleaning up in the japanese realm, while Cashen, Champagne, Evans, Maragni, and Trim toil in relative obscurity in the European realm, the work is SUPERB, and in most cases represents a fantastic deal.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Great topic Joss.

I have only been collecting for around five years. About three years ago my collecting shifted from tactical folders and hunters to big bowies. Recently I have added fighters and want to add a few chute knives and traditional Japanese knives as well. My collection is exclusively forged knives with most, but not all, being made by ABS members.

What I have noticed parallels what others have stated. The prices charged by the top ABS MSs has increased greatly. This does not seem to have any correlation with greatly increased quality in their work, but has more to do with supply and demand.

We are definitely seeing a huge increase in embellishment. Many makers that five years ago offered no engraving are doing so now. Some are also getting into carving. Not long ago I didn't like the idea of paying more for embellished knives, now I find they are appealling to me more and more.

Five years ago I didn't see near the quality coming from new young makers that I am seeing now. Adam DesRosiers really sticks out in my mind as an example of this, but there are many others. Also, makers like Nick Wheeler and Jason Knight are making knives that compete with the best of them, as far as I am concerned.

There has been a massive increase in the number of makers in the last five years. I don't think there has been a corresponding increase in the number of collectors. At some point knife makers will have to figure out a way to market their knives to a more broad based audience. This however will be something for the next five years.

I have noticed that bowies are not being featured as much by makers in the last year as they were previously. As my collecting knowledge increases so does my interest in other styles. This is probably the case with others as well. The favored knives being collected seems to cyclical. I think bowies have reached the top of their current cycle and have started on a downward trend. However, in my opinion they will stay fairly popular.

There has been an increase in the more basic integral designs. In particular you see the boys from Brazil making these knives. I have not seen much of an increase in the full integral which includes the buttcap/pommel. I am currently working on one maker to see if he will make me an integral subhilt fighter in pattern welded steel. No commitment from the maker as of yet.

In mostly the last couple of years I have also noticed a major increase in web based high end knife dealers. I don't purchase from dealers, preferring to deal directly with makers instead, but I wonder how many of them will be here if we ask this question five years from now.

More makers that are entering the field seem to have a better business sense. There are still lots that don't have a clue, but I have noticed that more know what to charge for their knives and they are doing a better job of getting their work noticed. These are the makers that will be here five years from now. They are taking knifemaking seriously and not just treating it as a hobby.

I don't think I am seeing much if any of a decrease in the collecting of tactical knives. What I am seeing is a move to more upscale tactical knives, with fancier materials being used. Not much in the way of other embellishments yet, but that may be coming as well.

There has been a huge increase in knowledgeable collectors in the last five years. I credit the internet for this. Five years ago I didn't know squat about custom knives, just that I liked them very much. Now, thanks to the internet and to reading as many magazine articles and books as possible, I have vastly increased my knowledge.

In my opinion, the biggest change in the last five years has been the visiblity given to knives and makers by the internet. Five years ago knife forums had a few hundred to a few thousand members. You did not see nearly as many makers with websites. This has given the collector a vast universe from which to gather knowledge and from where they are able to see knives and get a better idea of what it is they like.
 
Great posts guys! :D

I'll try not to repeat too much of what has been said, but simply make a few quick observations:

1) Forged knives have increased in popularity over the past 5 years - demand for the top makers has increased, resulting in higher prices and longer - or completely closed - waiting lists.

2) There are still a few top level smiths who have deliberately kept their prices down - those guys figure very prominently on my radar screen.

3) I have not seen any reduction in the popularity of bowies. Based on the few shows I have attended, as well as the many show preview threads I have run, the big blades are still up there.

4) The number of younger makers who seem to be learning at an unbelievable rate is quite remarkable. The future is bright, in terms of quality of product and talent of makers. Whether there are enough collectors to sustain this is very much a live question.

5) Some newer makers are not the least bit hesitant to price their knives up there with the more established makers. This is, I think, a risky move which will pay off for some but not for all in this group.

6) Hamons are definitely all the rage at the moment. This is still too recent a phenomenon for me to call it a sustained trend, but the present popularity is obvious. I don't know that this is necessarily a good thing. A Fogg bowie with a mesmerizing hamon is worth a substantial premium for reasons beyond the hamon itself. Some makers seem to feel that ANY visible hardening line justifies a HUGE premium over a comparable "plain" carbon steel bowie. I don't buy into that at all.

7) A corollary of the above - I am seeing a lot more upscale carbon steel bowies and other fixed blades than ever before. It was not that long ago that premium ivories and gold-inlaid engraving were the exclusive accoutrements of the damascus blade. Not so anymore, and I say that's a good thing.

8) I don't think damascus is fading anytime soon - particularly in light of the fact that producing such blades of an exacting quality is what elevates a maker to his ABS Master Smith stamp.

9) I'd be interested to hear what others think of the high end folder market, since I don't have a clue.

Roger
 
Although my custom knife interests are at the other end of the spectrum from the ABS fixed blade collector, I've observed similar trends in the handmade, gent's folder market. The well known makers have increased prices significantly, if not dramatically in many (but not all) cases. The purveyor market is soaring (largely due to the internet), which has also contributed to the increase in prices. Engraved knives are more popular and more available, and much pricier. Some of the newbie makers are coming from the jewelry industry and going straight into the higher-end market, Kenneth King and Don Bell come to mind. More collectors and people with little knowledge are becoming "purveyors", which has increased the time for customer ordered knives to be finished. Since the advent of eBay, and webstores it doesn't take alot to get started which has further increased the market growth and prices.
 
There is really not too much to add to the cogent comments already made.

I suppose that my primary attraction to the forged blade, is that every one is unique. All the contours and balance combine with the handcrafted fit and finish to create an exciting work of art, visually and tactilely. Knives interact with your hand and its FEEL becomes a part of you. Their functionality as one of man's earliest and most successful tools does strike a deep chord with our ancient past. It is one of the very few things that we encounter today that is actually created almost from scratch by a human hand.
 
I have to add my two cents.
Collectors are getting educated. They want a knife that they can use too. I never understood the attraction to all of the pricey, fancy folders. That must be the one great divide in the world of collecting and probably sums up the type of buyer for either catagory. You can either use it or look at it.
Norm Flayderman has a great book about Bowie knives. You can guess what my area of interest is.
Regarding Damascus it's also being made in India now which tends to water the market down a bit so I agree that the forged knife makers that have worked hard in developing unique steel treatments will be a large part of the future.
LS
 
There is really not too much to add to the cogent comments already made.

I suppose that my primary attraction to the forged blade, is that every one is unique. All the contours and balance combine with the handcrafted fit and finish to create an exciting work of art, visually and tactilely. Knives interact with your hand and its FEEL becomes a part of you. Their functionality as one of man's earliest and most successful tools does strike a deep chord with our ancient past. It is one of the very few things that we encounter today that is actually created almost from scratch by a human hand.
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Click to expand...

That was really well said Peter!
 
Some of what has been mentioned above can be described as market trends. The relative popularity of certain blade styles or materials is constantly changing, and this change is itself one of the few constants in the custom knife world.

Instead of discussing what has recently become popular, however, I will direct my comments towards what I see as more permanent and lasting structural changes to the custom knife market. Specifically, I want to highlight the vast increase in the availability of information and the decrease in barriers to entry - for collectors, makers, and dealers alike.

Volumes have been published in the various media over the past few years. Aside from the traditional venues (primarily knife magazines and their sister publications like the Knives Annual series), information is being disseminated via the internet discussion forums, email groups, "indie" instructional DVDs, and an increase in the number of classes made available to makers and enthusiasts.

Collectors can more readily conduct research and no longer have to go to knife shows to build their collections. A new collector can quite literally become a bit informed, and have a respectable collection started within 24 hours. All he needs to do is read a magazine, browse the internet, research makers and market prices, click a few buttons and presto - he own a few custom knives.

Dealers can also readily research makers, trends, market prices, and even identify potential customers very easily. Instead of building a brick-and-mortar store-front and spending years cultivating a customer base, they can construct a slick website and be up and running in no time at all. $50,000 and just a few weeks time can quite literally build a business. Whether or not its profitable will depend on a number of factors, but the fact is that barriers to entry are indeed quite low.

Makers also can become very good, very fast. There are no longer a lot of closely guarded secrets in knifemaking. You can buy all sorts of books and DVDs (have you seen the Center Cross instructional videos?), ask questions on the internet forums, take classes from the ABS or Sierra Forge and Fire, attend hammer-ins, and talk to knowledgeable and established makers whose numbers are constantly growing. Take a look at the quality of work coming from recent "Best New Makers" award winners or recently minted crops of ABS Journeyman Smiths. Some of these guys have hardly been at it for more than a few years but some of their work is truly exceptional.

These factors are causing the market to evolve at a much faster pace. When the barriers to entry were high, those who did get involved were typically those with the greatest resources or the greatest passion. Today, someone can do it on a whim. People can take much bigger chances for much lower initial investment. I guarantee you that many of the makers, dealers, and collectors that seem so prominent in today's will be all but forgotten five years from now.

Is this good or bad? Well it's good in that it makes the world of custom knives more accessable to a broader and more diverse audience, but it can also be bad in the sense that the market can become more vulnerable to fleeting trends, fads, and market cycles. Have you noticed how quickly some of the on-line herds can embrace and then forsake a maker?

I like the fact that the market is openning up, but it certainly isn't without its risks. As a collector, I will be wary of paying premium prices for the work of a "hot" maker who I'm not convinced will even be around in a few years. I will be cautious of paying high dollars for a pre-owned knife from an internet dealer I've never heard of. But I will always remain an enthusiastic member of this very interesting and dynamic community, and will watch with great interest as it continues to grow and evolve.
 
I can't believe this has not yet been mentionned...

Ebay has completely changed the 2nd hand market. In the past, selling part of your collection was costly and difficult. You could sell to one of your fellow collectors, but that was limited. Most people used some type of dealers, mostly A. G. Russell. Doing a sale that way would cost the owner 15% to 25% of the eventual sale price. That meant that most often people had no choice but to take a loss on their sale. There were a few exceptions - Loveless, Moran, etc - but that was the general rule, I believe.

Ebay (and other venues such as the "For Sale" subforum here) has changed all that. While it is still rare to make a consistent profit by turning over one's collection, it's much easier to not loose too much money. This is much better because a small loss can be rationalized as "cost of ownership", whereas a big loss leaves a very bitter taste.

This has had momentous consequences:
1) Collections circulate much faster: people are more willing to sell their knives, and this increases the inventory of knives available at any given time, etc.
2) Purveyors have lost the mid-market, second hand knife. They are still - sometimes! - useful for some confidential knives with small demand, but for the well known or the low price, they're not needed.
3) Shows have a comparatively harder time demonstrating the value they provide to collectors. If within a few weeks I can see countless top quality knives on eBay, why should I go through the trouble and the expense of flying across the country to hear that my favorite maker sold his ware the night before in the hotel bar?
4) Makers have a better visibility into the value of their stuff. If their knives are selling for 2X or 3X what they charge, they can more easily discover it and adjust their pricing.
 
This is a really fantastic thread, (Derrick) Wulf sums up my thoughts on the influence of the internet very well, infact I couldn't find anything in that post I didn't agree with.

The collectors and opinions reflected in this thread I have a great deal of respect for and like to read the thoughts of. However, and this is where I hope Joss is wrong on the future of shows, I would much rather sit around a table with a beer, a few knives, the good company of Roger, Peter, Steven, Derrick, Joss, Anthony, Keith, Danbo a few others and discuss what is "really" going on!:D If shows and meets are forsaken for the convienience of the internet then we lose out on a lot more than picking up a few knives in person!


Stephen
 
Stephen F said:
The collectors and opinions reflected in this thread I have a great deal of respect for and like to read the thoughts of. However, and this is where I hope Joss is wrong on the future of shows, I would much rather sit around a table with a beer, a few knives, the good company of Roger, Peter, Steven, Derrick, Joss, Anthony, Keith, a few others and discuss what is "really" going on!:D If shows and meets are forsaken for the convienience of the internet then we lose out on a lot more than picking up a few knives in person!


Stephen
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I think that Knife Shows will always have a place in the mix, but there will be a lot fewer of them. They are simply too expensive and time consuming to attend for both collectors and makers. I suspect that we will be down to half a dozen major shows sooner, rather than later.
 
The next 5 years will be similar to the last 5 years.

1) More makers. Most will remain very part time or fade away due to their lack of ability to promote themselves in this very competitive market.

2) More dealers. As more and more collectors build a sizeable inventory they will try their luck. As someone pointed out earlier the cost to set up a web site is very low. Like the makers most will remain small or fade away. The problem is that the majority of these new dealers is that they paid full price for the knife and are now trying to sell them for a profit. We all now how easy it is to price check a parituclar knife. Then there is the difficulty of replacing the really good knives out that collection.

3) More Shows. Currently there are more shows than have ever exisisted before. Look at some of the shows that didn't exist 5 years ago, The Reno Show, The Chicago Custom Knife Show and the Bi-Annual Plaza Cutlery Show. These are huge shows. However other formerly powerhouse shows are taking a hit. The Guild Show, the November New York Show, the Oregon Show.

Then of course there is the Daddy of All Shows....The Blade Show. It gets bigger every year.

There is no dobut that the Internet has impacted shows. However, people still want to attend shows. The closer the show is the more likely they are to attend. So there will be more smaller shows with lesser known makers. This will be a great place for new collectors to get an education and experienced collectors to find that diamond in the rough.

The down side to the Internet is that there is so much information. It is like becoming a day trader because there is now so much information out there to help you pick stocks. However, if you don't have the time or knowledge to sort through all of this information things will not go well for you. Serious collectors will have to find a trusted advisor.

A few things are certain:

# Trends are more frequent but don't last as long

# The "hot" maker or "hot" knife is neither for very long any more. There are a constant 20 - 25 makers in demand. After that there are those who become hot but find it extremly difficult to stay that way.

# Tactical knives are here to stay and are always hot. The factory market would collapse without the custom guys innovating in this area. Look at the knives that in the most demand in the aftermarket and that bring the highest premiums (percentage wise) the tactical guys lead the way.

# Forged blades will gain the most in the next 5 years. The ABS does an exceptional job training new and established makers. Guys like Jerry Fisk are doing their best to train them in the way of business as well. A custom knife maker with business mindset will do very well.

The custom knife market is much quicker to react these days. So now when something becomes popular more makers will adopt it much quicker. THis of course brings a quicker demise to that type of knife. Because custom knife buyers always want new, different and the next great thing.

WWG
 
Joss said:
I can't believe this has not yet been mentionned...

Ebay has completely changed the 2nd hand market. In the past, selling part of your collection was costly and difficult. You could sell to one of your fellow collectors, but that was limited. Most people used some type of dealers, mostly A. G. Russell. Doing a sale that way would cost the owner 15% to 25% of the eventual sale price. That meant that most often people had no choice but to take a loss on their sale. There were a few exceptions - Loveless, Moran, etc - but that was the general rule, I believe.

Ebay (and other venues such as the "For Sale" subforum here) has changed all that. While it is still rare to make a consistent profit by turning over one's collection, it's much easier to not loose too much money. This is much better because a small loss can be rationalized as "cost of ownership", whereas a big loss leaves a very bitter taste.

This has had momentous consequences:
1) Collections circulate much faster: people are more willing to sell their knives, and this increases the inventory of knives available at any given time, etc.
2) Purveyors have lost the mid-market, second hand knife. They are still - sometimes! - useful for some confidential knives with small demand, but for the well known or the low price, they're not needed.
3) Shows have a comparatively harder time demonstrating the value they provide to collectors. If within a few weeks I can see countless top quality knives on eBay, why should I go through the trouble and the expense of flying across the country to hear that my favorite maker sold his ware the night before in the hotel bar?
4) Makers have a better visibility into the value of their stuff. If their knives are selling for 2X or 3X what they charge, they can more easily discover it and adjust their pricing.
Click to expand...


GEE! My business is DEAD and I did not even notice. If you think that 50% of knife collectors use the web, I think you are wrong. I have a data base of 1,000,000 and only 60,000 email addresses. How many of those 60,000 do you think use or even look at E-Bay?

Yes, the net is important and as old fogies die out it will become more so. I do wish that it were that important today.

http://cuttingedge.com is the oldest aftermarket there is (successor to "The A. G. Russell List of Knives for Immediate Delivery" from 1968) and is doing fine. Yes the web part is doing most of that.

A. G.
 
A. G.,

Thanks for your comments. It would be great to get your input on the overall question. I think we all value your experience, and we would all benefit from reading your take on this.

If you have a db of 1M names and only 60,000 emails, I have to ask how the 940,000 who do not use the web that much hear about your inventory. Do you still publish a catalogue?

As a side issue, I don't think I said your business was dead. I did say that purveyors had lost the 2nd hand market but it's not an all or nothing thing. I still believe that eBay is now the largest channel for 2nd hand customs. Nothing you wrote provided any evidence to the contrary.
 
Joss said:
A. G.,
If you have a db of 1M names and only 60,000 emails, I have to ask how the 940,000 who do not use the web that much hear about your inventory. Do you still publish a catalogue?
Click to expand...

Well we mail several million A. G. Russell Knives Catalogs, over a million Russells for Men catalogs, 20-30,000 Knife Collectors Club brochures every three weeks and about 5,000 Cutting Edge Catalogs every 2nd or 3rd month.

Joss said:
A. G.,As a side issue, I don't think I said your business was dead. I did say that purveyors had lost the 2nd hand market but it's not an all or nothing thing. I still believe that eBay is now the largest channel for 2nd hand customs. Nothing you wrote provided any evidence to the contrary.
Click to expand...

If you will provide me with the numbers for E-Bay, how many after-market handmade knives sold and what prices they sold for I will tell you what we did in that period. I need a little more lthan your opinion. As I said I have been dominating the after-market in handmade knives since 1968 and that is well known to most of the old timers. Do I still? I do not think so, there are now many players, both with catalogs, like North West Knives, and many many web sites. I know that the web sites sell many many more new knives from makers than we do. I doubt though that they outsell us in the after-market. A. G.
 
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