OT- US Troop Deaths vs. US Population

Spectre

Spectre

Joined
Nov 3, 1998
Messages
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In my ROTC MilScience classes, we have been told several times that 3 US soldiers (I think they mean "US Service Personnel", not just US Army troops) die in Iraq a day, vs. 93 people who die of gunshot wounds (GSW) in the US daily. This, we are told, shows that we are safer in Iraq.

That sounds about right, doesn't it? For about 2 seconds. That's about how long it takes to realize there are a lot more people in the US than serving in Iraq. Now, I rounded UP on the # of US personnel in the Gulf Area, and I rounded DOWN on the total # in the US population, but here's how I worked it out.

John R. Shirley
-------
Quick Comparitive Analysis Between US Mainland and US PG- Deployed Personnel

Deaths

3 deaths/ 250,000 personnel (US Military)
93 deaths/295,000,000
93 is 31x 3. 31 times as many people die from GSW daily in the US than in Iraq.
There are over 295 million people in the US. There are less than 250,000 US personnel in the entire Persian Gulf region. This is 1180x as many people in the US. 1180 divided by 31 = 38. This means each individual service member in Iraq is 38x as likely to die violently than if he were home in the US. If the US population had a similar rate of deaths, there would be 3534 GSW deaths in the US every day.
---
CNN says “more than 220,000” troops. # elevated to be certain it was high enough
CIA actually estimates over 295.7 million.
 
I figure the way to engender trust is not to tell hopeful lies, but give the truth, however unpleasant it may be.

John
 
Well , war is basically killing so i don't see the problem. Although i regret the loss of those young people ,war is killing as many people as you can from the other side. Casualties are always to expect especially when the conflict turns into an anti insurgengence war. Iraq military bunkers, vehicles and personnel where easy to neutralize but now the US has entered a war with underground fighters. Present history has shown that democratic countries have a bad score in war against partizans/terrorists/freedomfighters.

The Germans in WW II
The French and US in Viëtnam
The USSR in Chechnia and Afghanistan
GB against the IRA

unless willing to demolish large parts of Iraq and take enormous amounts of casualties i think it is a wise decision to leave Iraq to the Iraqi governement right now.


Otherwise face the consequensec of occupying a country where a large proportion of the people who live there have a deeply rooted hate against the US.

We all knew it when we invaded Iraq that it had to be swift and quick, or it would turn into a second Viëtnam.

This is not a leftist anti war rant i write, just common sense observation of what is going on in Iraq.

I am not against the war in Iraq, but you can't fight a war without people dying in the proces.
 
in my arrogant opinion, the only people who should be commenting on war are the people who are actually out there fighting, killing, and dying in it.

SAYZ ME.

:mad:
 
I think USSR, and today's Russia is anything but democratic. Of course Russia is more democratic than USSR, but overall, no it ain't...
 
Dave, people can have an opinion even if they are not enlisted.

The world is more complex than that,
Recomend you read Few bits of military history.
 
Thanks John. Really good stuff.

As far as making comments about war....

I guess HH the DaLai Lama should be quiet...

He said in Rutgers recently that war was outmoded...and that the young of the world need to take responsibility for peace....

You are right...people who aren't qualified to speak should be quiet...

Shane
 
herewegoagain said:
Dave, people can have an opinion even if they are not enlisted.

The world is more complex & mature than your current peception,
Recomend you read Few bitsof military history.

Schools out.

Freddy
Click to expand...

I'll tell you what, I will educate myself in the implications of military action as well as popular social opinion if you educate yourself in proper English grammar and spelling.

:foot:
 
I have people I like very much off in Iraq right now, guarding trucks. Others are airplane mechanics in Kuwait or fighting in the sandlot.
There is no percentage in percentages. If you are the person who dies, then you are 100% dead. It is not relevant to the poor dead soldier if lots of civilians die, or if other people don't die.

You are just as dead.

It never works to try to figure odds in these instances, since if you are wounded, then it is your misery and not anyone elses (other than your loved ones and friends).

I just hate to see any of our soldiers die in Iraq or anywhere. We are there now, and the best thing that we can do is to try to minimize our casualties.
 
What's the old saying? "War is hell." Like most of the rational minded people in this country, i don't know what to think anymore. Between the grinding of the war machine's gears, the inflating price of gasoline, the constant and utterly exhausting finger-pointing that both idiot parties are doing...man, i'm just kinda done with it for awhile.
Picking sides on this matter is kind of like having a .44 mag and .45 LC placed in front of you and told to argue which one will kill you better if you shoot yourself in the head with it.
Dave, in a way, i'm kind of with you. I'm really tired of things being spun in different directions, stripped down or painted up, stats of how many we have killed to how many we have lost. The media, the politics, overall crumby things that happen in the world, it just makes watching the news or reading the paper tiring. I can't even go to the $%&* movies, or watch TV, or read the entertainment section of the paper (all things that i really love to do) without someone's opinion or take on what's going on in the world shoved down my throat. The only thing I am interested in right now is what the people fighting have to say. Not that i don't value other's opinions. I really truly do. I all I want to hear is 51% of the guys and gals say "We feel good about this. We have done a good thing overall" or 51% of them say "This was a mistake. I am scared. I see suffering that we have caused." I know it's not cut and dry, but God how I want it to be.
I digress. John, thank you for doing the math. It's nice to see the facts placed out in an easy to read fashion. No projections, no weighted facts, just an honest picture of an ugly thing. We need that sometimes. Noble or Illegal wars are ugly things. Sometimes a spade is just a spade.

Jake
 
I figure that delusions can only hurt us in the long run.

Historically, the US population gets tired of almost all long conflicts. Dave, I *think* I understand what you're saying, but if we took it to its logical conclusion, no-one would be able to speak about any conflict that had taken place more than 60 years or so ago, because no-one who'd fought in it, or ordered it to be fought, would still be alive. Forgetting the lessons and history would be a tragedy both for the many who have died and for those of us still alive today.

I wasn't trying to comment on whether the US does or does not have a mission to fulfill in Iraq; I was just working out the real skinny, based on the "facts" my chain of command is touting.

Mark Twain said there were three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

John
 
Dave Hahn said:
in my arrogant opinion, the only people who should be commenting on war are the people who are actually out there fighting, killing, and dying in it.

SAYZ ME.
Click to expand...

The folks out there fighting, killing, and dying in it work for (and are paid by) the folks that don't. They have every right to comment on it. Whether you wish to listen to them or not is your business, but the folks that serve don't have a choice in it. They signed that right away when they enlisted. Military service does not begin and end at free college.

Not angry, not looking for a fight, but I want to make a counterpoint with a similar level of intensity as your point. This is a tricky issue, Dave. ;) We're all volunteers here; I've never met a serviceman (or woman) who had the recruiter put a gun to their head. If they didn't want to fight, they really picked the wrong line of work...you know what I mean?

The folks that got yanked back in due to their obligatory 8-year commitment...well, I feel worse for them, but this should've been explained to them before they signed the dotted line. If it was and they forgot it, I feel for them. (They don't make a big deal out of it either..."Yeah, you can be called back but that would only happen in WWIII" was how it was explained to me.) If it was not explained to them, that's criminal and should absolve them from any further obligations. For those of us who had loopholes exploited in order to retain them (i.e. me) it's nothing we're not used to. You roll with the punches and you keep on keeping on. Everyone gets out eventually...even me. :D
 
And John? Honesty truly is the best policy. You are totally correct.

I'm not ready to comment on this in detail just yet. In a few months, perhaps. I'll just say that we're in complete agreement. Thank you for the numbers; I spent some time and a lot of wrangling (unsuccessfully) to go to Iraq and one of the arguments that wasn't used against me was that I might die.
 
I hate seeing a soldier die as much as anyone, maybe more than some as I served with some. I have already lost a kid that was in my old unit where I was a medic. As much as those soldiers over there want to return home to their families they want to make sure that the job they are doing over there is not in vain. Nothing will upset them more than pulling out and having the area de-stabilize and all their efforts go up in smoke. How will that comfort those families, friends, and fellow soldiers, that have lost loved ones serving over there who justify that loss in making Iraq a better place for it's people.

We owe it to the Iraqi people to make sure the government we are helping them with is stable and self-sufficient before we pull out our troops. The soldiers over there know the risks better than us. I have a friend over there now working as Tactical Training Advisor to the Iraqi Riot Police. He rolls on Patrol on a frequent basis and as a Ex-West Point Football Player he makes a nice 6'4" 240 lbs target. As much as he is ready to come home he wants to make sure he has done his job to the best of his ability.

Civilian shock and outrage at the loss of soldiers lives should not be allowed to influence Military Policy. A good case in point is Somalia. It was bitter Victory that got turned into a bitter Defeat by the Clinton Administration. The soldiers involved fought hard and lost lives but accomplished the mission. Those same Rangers were ready to roll within hours of return to go back in and capture Aidid. Then due to public outcry at the disturbing images on T.V. they were told to stand down and the rest of the mission was scratched. What a insult to those valiant soldiers who fought hard and lost fellow soldiers to be told that all they gained and lost was for naught.

From Somalia and the change in ground troop involvement you can see its effect on how long the U.S. waited before they got involved on the ground in Bosnia. Think of the atrocities that went on there while all we did was use our Air power. Earlier implementation of our ground troops could of prevented some of the genocide that occured.

Sorry went on a tangent but its something I feel strong about.
 
oft times i say things in haste, i really need to refine what i say as it comes out too unpolished.

if i had the chance to think and re write that particularly caustic statement i would do it as follows.

I truly believe, that only those men and women who have directly experienced war, whether it be soldier, civilian, or even victim, truly... TRULY understand the meaning of what it is compared to those who only watch on tv or read in books about it.

There are a few, albeit a tiny completely uninvolved minority, but a loud minority nonetheless, whether yay or nay, feel as if they can dictate to those who have endured or must endure (war) what should or should not be done.

(it's late, and my grammar is bad).

so back to a more unpolished statement,

"sometimes people who talk as if they are experts without fully understanding the consequences of their yammer (like me for example) should shut the hell up"

:foot:
 
Dave, we ain't fightin', we're talkin'.

You're a good man and your opinions are valued. Don't lose sight of that.

"Never explain, never complain," right? ;)
 
Man, this thread is great. I'm politically-minded and I hate math! Now I'm better-informed and didn't even have to break out the pen and paper. Thanks, man!!

Nam
 
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