Aftermarket in the Toilet?

[drf1]

you really think that the wealthiest .1% of buyers is an accurate representation of the aftermarket in general?

no it is not, but either is the low end buyer and that is what you and the creator of this absurd thread is implying.

i believe in his opening post he referred to the sale of Busse Knives as an indicator? he qualified himself right there in my eyes and so did those who dogpiled on and agreed with the assumption.

i believe the day after the presidential election you stated "aftermarket officially in the toilet"

from what authority do you speak? have you ever bought and sold a knife worth 20k? 10k? 5K? 1k?

if you have not, perhaps you should be a bit more reserved.

garson is correct, and he echoes what AG, Voyles, Robertson, Ellis and Myself have been trying to say.

(BTW, the high end buyer accounts for more than 1% of the market)

this thread isnt about knives anymore, it has become a place to vent anger over the state of the economy and in my opinion could be discussed in another forum.

DF

 

[antonanton]

I can only speak to my own situation regarding the aftermarket, which I have been active in for the last 15 years. Nothing of interest has come up lately.....on Nordic, here in the for sale section or elsewhere....when it does, and the price is right...I will buy it.....and many of my friends in similar financial situations, with similar taste in knives have the same attitude.

STeven Garsson

Agree.

 

[severedthumbs]

No, of course not.

Generally the wealthiest of the wealthy did something to get that way, and tend to stay that way(Getty, Rockefeller, Guggenheim, Soros(rot in hell!).....)

The point was that MartinR was patting himself on the back with a post made some months ago, and the state of the aftermarket is not dead or in the toilet, even....if it is nothing but a sliver wrt to Ellis and Favano, it is still not ALL doom and gloom.

I can only speak to my own situation regarding the aftermarket, which I have been active in for the last 15 years. Nothing of interest has come up lately.....on Nordic, here in the for sale section or elsewhere....when it does, and the price is right...I will buy it.....and many of my friends in similar financial situations, with similar taste in knives have the same attitude.

Even so, I am not happy about the hit that MY wallet is taking in a variety of sectors.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

thanks for the explanation STeven.

 

[severedthumbs]

no it is not, but either is the low end buyer and that is what you and the creator of this absurd thread is implying.

i believe in his opening post he referred to the sale of Busse Knives as an indicator? he qualified himself right there in my eyes and so did those who dogpiled on and agreed with the assumption.

i believe the day after the presidential election you stated "aftermarket officially in the toilet"

from what authority do you speak? have you ever bought and sold a knife worth 20k? 10k? 5K? 1k?

if you have not, perhaps you should be a bit more reserved.

garson is correct, and he echoes what AG, Voyles, Robertson, Ellis and Myself have been trying to say.

(BTW, the high end buyer accounts for more than 1% of the market)

this thread isnt about knives anymore, it has become a place to vent anger over the state of the economy and in my opinion could be discussed in another forum.

DF

I think i said has been officially flushed down the toilet, or something close to that.

and your right I have not bought any knife for 20k or 15k or 10k, but I have bought one for close to 5k and several within in the 1k to 3k range. that fact alone still does not qualify me to speak my opinion on this matter anymore than if i had bought zero knives.

 

[Kohai999]

I think i said has been officially flushed down the toilet, or something close to that.

and your right I have not bought any knife for 20k or 15k or 10k, but I have bought one for close to 5k and several within in the 1k to 3k range. that fact alone still does not qualify me to speak my opinion on this matter anymore than if i had bought zero knives.

I think that Dan's point, and it is a good one, is that in order to have a feel for where the aftermarket is actually AT you have to participate in it.

He intimated this rather clumsily, but Dan is a far better player of the aftermarket than he is a writer.....I tend to be the opposite of that....he is also a superb gambler, and there is a correlation there as well.

So, severedthumbs, do you actively participate in the aftermarket?

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[Lorien]

and I've never spent more than 700 dollars on a knife! How dare I open my blasphemin mouth in this church of knife collecting, what the hell do I know? I'm not much of a collector, I'll tell you that. But I do love custom and handmade knives, which is why I generally post things in this forum. I don't feel a great desire to own many knives, but I love the pretty pictures and the friendships that I've been making, through this interest.

I will admit to not knowing much about how collecting knives works, and that should be evident by the post which started this thread, and many other posts I've made, for that matter.

However, I still look back at that post and feel that the topic was a legitimate one, and not absurd as has been said. I was seeing patterns, or thought I was and wanted to know if I was on the right track.

I can't say that I forecast the economic crisis which will manifest itself in real terms to a great number of people very shortly, but I can see now looking back on it, that perhaps I was catching wind of something larger going on, through keeping up with aftermarket knife sales, (not just customs, but also mid tech and semi custom).

Now, what I thought was going to happen was that the price of custom knives in the aftermarket would diminish at a substantial rate and that there'd be good deals to be had, and that has happened especially for some makers in particular. But I didn't count on supply dwindling, which judging by the classifieds and by the offerings provided by dealers, is seeming to occur right now. But all this stuff is totally in a state of flux.

And besides, there is no black and white. None of us can read the future. But the lifespan of this thread is testament to the dynamism of the economy, and the interest that many of us have in it, with regards to custom knives. I sure have learned a lot though, through the participation of almost all this forums' regular posters. It's rare to get that level of participation in one thread.

There have been many themes; Custom knife market in the toilet, Knife industry in the toilet, Economy in the toilet, Government in the toilet, etc.

Perhaps I should have just named this thread 'In the Toilet', and left it at that

 

[Trent Rock]

In my post I mentionned that consummer spending is NOT what drives the economy. If it were, we could pass a law demanding that all US households get rid of their existing cars. That would swiftly reinject demand for GM and the rest and, abracadabra, the billions spent would save the economy. Or we could brake all the windows, etc.

What drives the economy is innovation, i.e., investment.

At some 70% of GDP, consumer spending can be a major benefit, or as we’re seeing now, a major drag

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/30/the-consumer-abandons-gdp/?mod=googlenews_wsj
LOL...I just figured out the last few months that I am a Neo-Keynesian !
The number I have heard for years is that consumer spending is 2/3 of the GDP
That is not Keynesian gibberish or Austrian School babble
Look at the numbers if you want

C=Consumer Spending
I=Investments

The decrease in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and equipment and software
that were largely offset by positive contributions from federal government spending, exports, private
inventory investment, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Personal consumption expenditures=10,190.7
Gross private domestic investment=1,999.4
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb...Table=5&FirstYear=2007&LastYear=2008&Freq=Qtr
*********************************************
It has been a pleasure seeing you guys try and figure out our so called economic crisis
I too think it was media/election year fueled

TennKnifeDude was had some really good posts :thumbup:
I think he knows what he is talking about

My take is simple:
I think MOST people consider custom knives LUXURY GOODS
When consumers THINK/speculate times are gonna be sluggish, they will cut back their luxury good purchases and buy more staple goods

A $1,000 knife with meteorite bolsters and giraffe bone handles or the mortgage payment?
The choice seems clear to me....

 

[severedthumbs]

I think that Dan's point, and it is a good one, is that in order to have a feel for where the aftermarket is actually AT you have to participate in it.

He intimated this rather clumsily, but Dan is a far better player of the aftermarket than he is a writer.....I tend to be the opposite of that....he is also a superb gambler, and there is a correlation there as well.

So, severedthumbs, do you actively participate in the aftermarket?

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

I do not actively participate at this moment. Divorce has forced me out for a while. But I do continue to watch it and ask questions.

 

[Ellis]

I actually had a good show in Chicago...It rained so hard on Sat. that maybe two buyers made it to the show,still managed to do just fine thanks.
Dave

 

[Lorien]

Trent, thanks a lot. Now you've added giraffe bone to the discussion!
Giraffe bone in the toilet?

 

[Kohai999]

I do not actively participate at this moment. Divorce has forced me out for a while. But I do continue to watch it and ask questions.

Watching from the sidelines is like watching WSOP on tv, instead of playing a tournament at your neighbor's house.....actively playing gives you a much different perspective.

Asking questions is always good...for the mind, for education, for discussion and debate.

However, until you put that knowledge to the test it is theoretical.

Is the aftermarket in the toilet? Not for me, and not for many in this thread.

THAT is the truth, from where I sit.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

 

[severedthumbs]

Watching from the sidelines is like watching WSOP on tv, instead of playing a tournament at your neighbor's house.....actively playing gives you a much different perspective.

Asking questions is always good...for the mind, for education, for discussion and debate.

However, until you put that knowledge to the test it is theoretical.

Is the aftermarket in the toilet? Not for me, and not for many in this thread.

THAT is the truth, from where I sit.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson

I will not debate your experience or intelligence on this subject. Thanks for sharing your insight.

 

[Les Robertson]

Hi STeven,

Excellent Points:

However, until you put that knowledge to the test it is theoretical.

Is the aftermarket in the toilet? Not for me, and not for many in this thread.

I think for the casual "investor" looking for the big hit....yes the after market has taken a huge hit. This is generally from someone who thought that no matter who the maker was there was always the next person who would pay a 50 to 100% premium.

Many of the Internet Savvy group are into knives that they will have difficulty getting their money back...at least short term.

As Trent pointed out it may come down to paying the mortgage or getting a knife. Actually if it comes to that you have no business buying anything that is a "luxury". That goes double if the knife has Giraffe bone.

Speaking of shows I will be curious to see how the NY Custom Knife Show goes next week.