Aftermarket in the Toilet?

Lorien

Lorien

Nose to the Grindstone
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Is that an accurate assessment?

If it is accurate, any ideas why? Staggering economy? Saturated market? Back to school? :))maybe a joke, but maybe not...)
Maybe the statement is inaccurate. If so, why?

I always track the classified section of Bladeforum and I've noticed that prices are dropping and knives don't seem to be moving briskly. Especially Busse family stuff, which may or may not be a good indicator of where things are at in the knife world, from a barometric standpoint.

Ps- this is not meant to be a 'sky is falling' type of negativity provoking thread. I've just been seeing some patterns and I don't know if it's my lack of history in this gig, just a 'seasonal pattern', or if there is a sea change occurring. Or maybe I'm totally off base.

Your thoughts?
 
Have you seen anything good that hasn't sold? I thought the items offered recently weren't really appealing. The few interesting items seem to have sold quickly.


Mitch
 
My sense from what I see and hear is that the secondary market is taking a hit because the American consumer is, at present, more cautious in spending. Knife collectors are American consumers, ergo......

EDIT: Anyone who conscientiously follows Nordic Knives (Joss ought to be able to confirm this as he follows Nordic) can tell you that Nordic is selling less, and that what their buyers seem to be buying now are knives of lesser price, with a few exceptions here and there. In my opinion, Nordic is a good measure of the secondary market, generally.
 
braillediver said:
Have you seen anything good that hasn't sold? I thought the items offered recently weren't really appealing. The few interesting items seem to have sold quickly.


Mitch
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this is the most accurate and perceptive observation i've seen regarding the secondary market.
 
Agree with Braillediver and Martin ... no interesting stuff are available for sale. Good stuff always sold (@ fair price). Also .. some items got soften either outdated or not "hot" anymore or the "main" players left the arena.

Add comment: my observation is limited to: tactical folders from well known knifemakers
 
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braillediver said:
Have you seen anything good that hasn't sold? I thought the items offered recently weren't really appealing. The few interesting items seem to have sold quickly.


Mitch
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I agree with you regarding some of the pieces in the recent INTERNET offerings, however Nordic's just one dealer site of several which has some very nice pieces at reasonable prices that are just sitting.

One that comes to mind is the Doug Casteel piece that many were so fond of in another recent thread.

Perhaps not in the toilet but there's a lot of sellers out there right now. I get quite a few e-mails, as I'm sure many of you do, where collectors are offering nice pieces for sale or trade.
 
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I doubt that the aftermarket is "in the toilet", but it might be a little soft.

It's hard to assess an overall "market health" when there are so many specific trends, all sufficiently material to affect it. For example, the liquidation of Mr. Myers' collection has resulted in a large number of (sometimes quality) pieces being made available at sometimes (very) attractive prices. (OT: If you were one of the few owning a Wild Bill Caldwell piece 9 months ago, you must be feeling bittersweet to see full damascus bowies of his being made available for below $1,000.) Nordic probably represents a very material % of the secondary market right now, and their offering is big enough to distort the whole market. Great for buyers, not so good if you are a seller.

Also, you have some makers coming up or down in popularity, and unless you are able to keep up with a large number of makers, it's easy to draw misleading conclusions from 3 or 4 makers.

This forum has changed quite a bit in the last few years, with a lot of high profile members being now fairly experienced. There's a normal trend for collectors to increase the overall scope of their collection and I think it's happened here - many collectors are now seeking $1,500+ pieces, and the good ones like that rarely show up here on the for sale forum. There's an argument to be made that the pool of prospective buyers for sub $1,000 pieces has not kept up with the offer.

Finally, the quality of new comers keeps going up. If you go to the "for sale by maker", you can see some very nice pieces from not-yet-established makers at very attractive prices. Those are in direct competition with the so-so older pieces from established makers that you often see on the For Sale forum.

As for me, I have found that this forum often isn't the best venue for selling nicer pieces. I have sold several pieces recently - worth anywhere from sub-$1,000 to over $2,500 - and I have found that BladeGallery was a better venue for me. It's not perfect, but if one isn't in a hurry, they are very good.
 
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Joss said:
I doubt that the aftermarket is "in the toilet", but it might be a little soft.

It's hard to assess an overall "market health" when there are so many specific trends, all sufficiently material to affect it. For example, the liquidation of Mr. Myers' collection has resulted in a large number of (sometimes quality) pieces being made available at sometimes (very) attractive prices. If you were one of the few owning a Wild Bill Caldwell piece 9 months ago, you must be feeling bittersweet to see full damascus bowies of his being made available for below $1,000.

Also, you have some makers coming up or down in popularity, and unless you are able to keep up with a large number of makers, it's easy to draw misleading conclusions from 3 or 4 makers.

This forum has changed quite a bit in the last few years, with a lot of high profile members being now fairly experienced. There's a normal trend for collectors to increase the overall scope of their collection and I think it's happened here - many collectors are now seeking $1,500+ pieces, and the good ones like that rarely show up here on the for sale forum. There's an argument to be made that the pool of prospective buyers for sub $1,000 pieces has not kept up with the offer.

Finally, the quality of new comers keeps going up. If you go to the "for sale by maker", you can see some very nice pieces from not-yet-established makers at very attractive prices. Those are in direct competition with the so-so older pieces from established makers that you often see on the For Sale forum.

As for me, I have found that this forum often isn't the best venue for selling nicer pieces. I have sold several pieces recently - worth anywhere from sub-$1,000 to over $2,500 - and I have found that BladeGallery was a better venue for me. It's not perfect, but if one isn't in a hurry, they are very good.
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Well said!
 
betzner said:
My sense from what I see and hear is that the secondary market is taking a hit because the American consumer is, at present, more cautious in spending. Knife collectors are American consumers, ergo......
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This is probably true.

Anyone who conscientiously follows Nordic Knives (Joss ought to be able to confirm this as he follows Nordic) can tell you that Nordic is selling less, and that what their buyers seem to be buying now are knives of lesser price, with a few exceptions here and there. In my opinion, Nordic is a good measure of the secondary market, generally.
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One thing to note is that Nordic has had so much stuff in the last 6 months that they have probably somewhat saturated their market. Also, Nordic really has knives priced right, and knives priced too high or too low. They sell the underpriced stuff quickly, and that sometimes makes it hard for them to sell the rest. Finally, I think their photos are appropriate for items that are underpriced or for those items that are not too ambitious. For multi-thousand $ pieces, I think their pictures are inadequate.

With this said, I am not sure that they are selling less. They have so much stuff coming (sometimes 50 new pieces each week!) that it might seem this way, but I suspect that they are selling like crazy. Some of the stuff they sell never shows up on the site or is taken down immediately (not less because it is bought by other purveyers who then increase the price & resell - with better photos).
 
The credit crunch can affect the market in all sorts of ways.

Sellers may be holding back knives in case they can't get the best prices and waiting for a better time to sell.

Buyers will snap up bargains when sellers have to sell to raise money for essentials.

People with money in stocks and other investments may liquidate them and put their money into knives and other collectables that may offer a better return or at least less chance of going down.

Overall, prices will go down but knives will still be bought and sold because its what people like to do.
 
Hi Lorien,

No, the aftermarket is not in the toilet. Far from it.

Most of you are taking the view...very limited view of the market. This is due primarily to limited information.

Because the information can be attained and distributed so rapidly. Those who receive that information feel they have an insight into the current status of the custom knife market.

If the market is in the toilet why were there 30 + dealers with tables at the Chicago show (according to Don Hanson)?

For the same reasons many of you took such a great interest in the show...specifically the auction. As well the Tactical Invitational had several arbitrage knives available.

Each collector will have their own parameters with regards to how they feel the "market" is preforming.

If they see the knives and/or makers they collect continuing to go up...the market is skyrocketing...remember the thread that Kevin Jones started about 2008 being a great year for custom knives. Im sure you do as many of you agreed with Kevin just last month.

One auction does not live up to expectations and now the after market is in the Toilet?

The Emerson Pre-Tacs in the Chicago auction were owned by one person. Pure supposition on my part..the seller probably made a 100 - 150% on his initial investment. That to me does not infer the market is soft.

Some of the Loveless knives seem to have not met what the market expected. Make no mistake many Loveless knives changed hands at the show. As the majority of these were transactions between collectors....those transactions did not make the 6'Oclock Blade Forums news.

Knives that are tracked with some interest on the Internet are generally those...that if attained can make the buyer a profit. In some cases a big profit and relatively quickly.

As has been pointed out numerous times, many of those knives are coming down in the aftermarket. Some have dropped to where if you can get one of these knives from the maker you can only make 50% on your money. :D

As with other collectibles/investments buyers, because they are not sure what they are looking at...utilize the opinion of others they deem to have some level of "expertise". They then purchase those knives. Post them up on any (or all) knife forums and get the "Love" from the membership. The knife is purchased not realizing that the price is near or at the top of the market...with only one place to go.

If you truly buy what you like with no regard to the custom market. Then what the custom knife aftermarket is doing today is of no consequence to you.

If you did buy with an "eye" towards reselling for a profit...then you should always purchase with an "exit" strategy in mind.

Yes, there are people selling knives for a loss. Is this an indicator of a softening market? I have seen that trend with regularity for the last 25 years...perhaps that means it is not a trend???

When buying a knife from a maker in the "primary market" it is all hand shakes and hugs. The buyer is happy to be getting the knife and the maker is happy to be getting rid of the knife. Nothing but Love!

In the primary market the waters are calm and clear, the sun is out. Knowing glances, sly smiles give way to big grins.

The aftermarket waters can be murky and churning, many times the clouds are out and you find yourself reaching for an umbrella. Many times opinions differ...some of those making offer(s) are obviously on some kind of illegal drugs!

If you think the market is soft...perhaps you are not looking at the right knives.
 
i was at the show. i spent two full days on the floor observing sales etc.
most of the purveyors did not do well. lots of makers, including the most sought after, had knives left on the table at the end of the show. tactical stuff that is "hot" sat and sat on tables. i'm talking onion, bogi, mayo, etc.
the tactical show did well but a lot of the lottery winners were dealers and when they tried to sell their knives at the show some sold and some did not. i had a great time, got the knives i wanted and went home extremely happy. but ask ellis, donato, farina, guild, hoffman, shindler, etc. how the sales were and i bet they say disappointing. however, nobody wants to say that because they are afraid of the snowball effect. if people perceive sales are slow or slowing they will be just that much more hesitant to buy.
 
Les Robertson said:
When buying a knife from a maker in the "primary market" it is all hand shakes and hugs. The buyer is happy to be getting the knife and the maker is happy to be getting rid of the knife. Nothing but Love!

In the primary market the waters are calm and clear, the sun is out. Knowing glances, sly smiles give way to big grins.

The aftermarket waters can be murky and churning, many times the clouds are out and you find yourself reaching for an umbrella.
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I gotta say this is some witty writing, even if not 100% true. Nice one, Les. :p

Chicago: LOTS of money was spent. My guess is that first money was largely spent or saved for the Tactical Invitational and the Auction. The Auction had 100 expensive knives and a relative small amount of bidders. Of course there were knives that went for less; they were holdouts for the ones that really appealed to the present buyers, and some deals, although relatively good, just lost out to other, more pressing purchases. It did not appear to me that the market was soft. Just the amount of attendant buyers.

I'll bet if there were only 25 knives, the buying percentage would have been notably up. That's simple economics.

Big money is being spent at the events. Tableholders should anticipate this, it's no secret. My bottom line was down, as the Show makers had to be cautious of discretionary spending. I know this, too.

I had a great year, and sold a BUNCH of knives on the forums to fund other purchases. I even had one in the Auction that netted me a profit from initial purchase.

It's always in the quality or interest of your selling product. Looking good to me!

Coop
 
Joss said:
This is probably true.



One thing to note is that Nordic has had so much stuff in the last 6 months that they have probably somewhat saturated their market. Also, Nordic really has knives priced right, and knives priced too high or too low. They sell the underpriced stuff quickly, and that sometimes makes it hard for them to sell the rest. Finally, I think their photos are appropriate for items that are underpriced or for those items that are not too ambitious. For multi-thousand $ pieces, I think their pictures are inadequate.

With this said, I am not sure that they are selling less. They have so much stuff coming (sometimes 50 new pieces each week!) that it might seem this way, but I suspect that they are selling like crazy. Some of the stuff they sell never shows up on the site or is taken down immediately (not less because it is bought by other purverers who then increase the price & resell - with better photos).
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Well, I guess Joss doesn't follow Nordic as closely as I thought. They are not "selling like crazy". Maybe the pictures are just too much to look at. I have been counting actual sales, number and dollar amount. I also go into Nordic's store twice a month. And Eric Meyer's collection has nothing to do with the percentages of items and dollar amounts sold today relative to six months ago. If sales are down, sales are down.

Sure, they sell things above and below perceived value. I think, in fact, they have, in general, the most right-on pricing around. But Nordic hasn't "saturated their market". Gimme a break.

And as far as some stuff not ever showing up on their site, I know all about that, because part of "that stuff" is in my collection. And I suspect, as with all things, how much shows up on the site is relative, ie, the percentage of what shows up remains a constant, ergo, if the numbers are down, the numbers are down.

And whether their pictures for higher priced and lower priced knives are adequate or inadequate would be a constant, ie, it's affect on sales would remain the same through time.

I would rather deal in facts than "I am not sure they are selling less".
 
I think most would agree that at a minimum, the economic climate will cause fewer new people to buy their first knife, or upgrade to higher quality. What do you think the impact of that will be on future secondary market sales? It sure won't be positive.
 
betzner said:
Well, I guess Joss doesn't follow Nordic as closely as I thought. They are not "selling like crazy". Maybe the pictures are just too much to look at. I have been counting actual sales, number and dollar amount. I also go into Nordic's store twice a month. And Eric Meyer's collection has nothing to do with the percentages of items and dollar amounts sold today relative to six months ago. If sales are down, sales are down.

Sure, they sell things above and below perceived value. I think, in fact, they have, in general, the most right-on pricing around. But Nordic hasn't "saturated their market". Gimme a break.

And as far as some stuff not ever showing up on their site, I know all about that, because part of "that stuff" is in my collection. And I suspect, as with all things, how much shows up on the site is relative, ie, the percentage of what shows up remains a constant, ergo, if the numbers are down, the numbers are down.

And whether their pictures for higher priced and lower priced knives are adequate or inadequate would be a constant, ie, it's affect on sales would remain the same through time.

I would rather deal in facts than "I am not sure they are selling less".
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Hmmm... Someone's in a pissy mood this morning. A bad night maybe?

Anyway, I'm not interested in picking a fight with you, but I am not so sure that "the percentage remains a constant". My impression is that the mix of pieces offered say in the last 6 months at Nordic has changed from what it was in the same period a year ago. However, I haven't done an in depth analysis of this and I might be wrong. I'm happy to admit that you know more about it than I do.
 
betzner said:
I think most would agree that at a minimum, the economic climate will cause fewer new people to buy their first knife, or upgrade to higher quality. What do you think the impact of that will be on future secondary market sales? It sure won't be positive.
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Personally, I think the choice of title “….in the toilet” is pretty ill advised. The question is a valid one, but as a man who has made some ill advised comments, this one is up there.

Come on, fellas…..this one is not going to be definitively answered. NO ONE has the “all seeing eye”……IF Les, Bob, Daniel, Dave, Paul, A.G, Tommy Clark, and a whole lot of other professional dealers got together and compared notes, and issued a pronouncement, it would still only be a snapshot of the totality.

Is everything cheery, hunky dory, buy, buy, buy? No, and right now, with the health of both the U.S. and World economies being uncertain, it should not be….however, the aftermarket is not “in the toilet”, that much I CAN say with certainty, being that I have access to information from a fair amount of varied makers, fellow collectors, dealers ……people are being much more careful about their purchases, but they are still actively purchasing.

As far as affecting future aftermarket sales....a lot always depends upon what the current generation of makers are doing, as well as a lot of other factors....if creativity and originality are not be brought to the fore, there is not a lot of reason to look at the current offerings, and that can be VERY healthy for the aftermarket with regards to the PAST originators.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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