Where does Supply/Demand equalize? Suvive Year+ leadtimes

mlmcasual

mlmcasual

Joined
Jun 10, 2013
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403
Big fan of the Survive Line.. I have a nice collection ranging from the necker to to the GOSO10. Been buying for several years.
The lead times have been getting longer, and longer and now Survive's lead times for preorders is over a year in some cases.. Literally..
This concerns me. I respect the decision to change from the "lottery" system to the "preorder" system. What concerns me is t he "preorder" is a payment up front in full and now over a year lead time. At what point does the supply demand equalize??? it's only been getting worse.. and having 500$ paid up front for over a year+ lead time has me concerned.. anything can happen in a year.
I currently have a gso 12 for example that will be over a year to get (I am 7 months in)..

Does anyone have a theory on where the supply demand will stabilize? What is YOUR maximum lead time you are willing to pay up front and receive later? Is a year or longer ok with you? What is the absolute maximum time you would be willing to pay up front and receive later? As much as I love Survive.

To be fair and clarify, I have talked to Guy numerous times.. he is an upright guy.. and it's his choice and prerogative to maintain the production level where it is and let the supply/demand dictate lead times.. I place no blame on him in this free market. despite my frustrations. It is what it is.. and (shrugs) it cerrtainly makes my collection all the more valuable in tier rarity.
 
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I'm jealous of your collection! Clearly you have good taste.

I'm still figuring out a lot about SURVIVE! and how things have changed over the last few years, but from what I can tell the starter campaign is going better than the very first preorders. We knew going into it that there would be an undetermined wait time. Because I like getting stuff, I hoped it would move along quickly, but I knew when I paid that I was accepting whatever the wait ended up being.

To answer your question, I'm really hoping to have my last preorder (the way it is looking now, probably the 10) in about a year from order placement. With that said, as long as Guy and Ellie are keeping us up to date on what's going on, I don't think I have a limit on when I'd consider asking for my money back. With all the effort that went into making customers aware, we agreed to wait when we paid for a starter knife.... at a discount..... with free upgrades........ and also some bonus stuff shipped with our blade. I only speak for myself, but considering how hard it is to get a GSO direct from the company, I would have paid full price just to get my name on the list to guarantee I'd get one when it was available.

Along with buying an incredible knife, the money we paid in the starter was an investment in the company to fund equipment to eventually increase production. I don't have an answer as to when supply will meet demand, but this topic has come up in various forms here in the last few weeks. In the foreseeable future, there is still only one man sharpening and putting his mark on every knife. This leads me to believe there will never come a point where GSO's will be cranked out by the dozens.

The general consensus here seemed to be that we'd choose the wait over lower quality or higher prices.

I know not everyone is crazy about the idea of paying full price up front and then waiting, but are there companies that let you preorder with only a partial deposit? I prefer paying and waiting over holding onto my money and just hoping I can buy one when extra stock is available.
 
Before the Preorder system, it was near impossible to even GET a factory knife direct.. They would sell out in seconds from email and was nicknamed the "lottery". It appears to me, survive has a stable base of enthusiasts that are perfectly fine with year lead times. That speaks volumes to the incredible demand and popularity. My collection includes a necker2, gso4, gso5,gso5.1,2015gso7/7(waiting),gso10,gso12(waiting) and with each gso, I have the detachable extended belt danglers.

The upside of the very long leadtimes, is the value the rarity adds. Although I don't them as safe queens, they have this "one of kind" feel to them knowing you can' t just go out get them.. The gso 10 knife I hold in my hand literaly doen't exist in ANY market now, or in the near future..
 
Nice collection you have there. I remember trying to get a 4.1 last year and they were gone before I could log onto my computer. The 5.1 was just as bad but I scored a factory 2nd.
I think they're playing it smart and safe now by getting a couple hundred of each design made so they have stock ready to go. The beginning is always the hardest but the wait will be worth it.
 
You can inconvenience a customer to a certain extent if you have a good product. Later models should come quicker as efficiencies are developed in the production cycle. Your suppliers (steel, heat treat, etc) can only push through so much volume at once too. They addressed some of the cash flow issues up front with the starter program, and made the disclaimer that there was no set delivery dates for our products, so that's on the buyers. My only thing is please don't tell the group here that you're starting to ship blades a month before you really start shipping them. I'd rather not have false hope I'm going to have my knife soon. Still a fantastic product, and I'm willing to take the abuse for that... Just my .02...
 
This may sound excessively dismissive, but I have knives ordered from other makers and paid for that I'm probably not going to get for two or three years.
I'm not thrilled about the wait, but I'll be happy when I get my new hardware, and I did my research first so I went in knowing the lead time.
Small shop knife makers that have good product seem to always have a long waiting list. Some of my favorite makers haven't take any orders at all this year.
Remember, knives like these are luxury items. When was the last time you ran out of things to cut with?
 
The forums are pissing me off today... 3 times I have tried to type how I feel about this, with statements about supply and demand and the knife industry and other facts to support my argument and te Fn forum gave me an error each time.

All i have to say is that the delivery issue was clearly explained by Guy before te starter went into effect. I am ok with the wait
 
I wonder if these discussions will still be happening in February?
By then a couple of models will be shipping and we'll know if the inventory is going to hold up for any length of time.
Honestly, the best way to keep inventory in stock is to keep raising the prices until you aren't selling out immediately.
It takes most makers a couple of years to embrace that concept.
A lot of good makers don't want to price customers that will actually use the knives out of the market.
 
You guys bring up some valid and interesting points. I really don't know much about the knife industry!

I'm sure Guy doesn't like never having enough stock to immediately satisfy customers, but I don't see him rating prices either. He's actually reduced or kept prices the same despite new processes like finish and heat treat and they also switched to free shipping. Even as the starter perks are phasing out, the value is still ridiculous.
 
There is a saying in industry .. "Customers want it Fast, Inexpensive, and High Quality..but they only get to Pick two of the three"
It is no different for the knife industry. Guy has set his business on High quality and inexpensive.. The LeadTimes become the big question mark and will be determined buy the customers and how long they are willing to wait. I am learning that in this high end knife market, customers are willing to go a really long time. Rather then who has the most money, it becomes who has the most patience.
 
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I've always been a big fan of the Survive line, I have one or two of every one and the 4.1 is in my top 5 favorite knives. I've made a ton of sheaths for them. That being said, I stopped at the pre order system. Payment up front + no specific product delivery date is a no go for me. Alot of things can happen that both are and are not someone's control in between now and a year or two. I can always pick up what I want from the flippers later for a premium and write it off.
I've had a lot of emails over the last couple years from people offering stupid amounts of money for the ones I use for sheath making and frustrated beyond belief that they cannot just order one with a reasonable lead time. It takes piles of cash to fund a small manufacturing business, your cash, not year old customers. A biz loan or investor or two would solve alot of the cash and manpower problems. Think how many blades would sell if every model had a 10 week lead time? You would have a couple thousand of my dollars right now.
 
Skystorm said:
I've always been a big fan of the Survive line, I have one or two of every one and the 4.1 is in my top 5 favorite knives. I've made a ton of sheaths for them. That being said, I stopped at the pre order system. Payment up front + no specific product delivery date is a no go for me. Alot of things can happen that both are and are not someone's control in between now and a year or two. I can always pick up what I want from the flippers later for a premium and write it off.
I've had a lot of emails over the last couple years from people offering stupid amounts of money for the ones I use for sheath making and frustrated beyond belief that they cannot just order one with a reasonable lead time. It takes piles of cash to fund a small manufacturing business, your cash, not year old customers. A biz loan or investor or two would solve alot of the cash and manpower problems. Think how many blades would sell if every model had a 10 week lead time? You would have a couple thousand of my dollars right now.
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How does their ordering process differ from yours other than the longer wait time? Don't you charge a client first and then they have to wait 8-9 weeks for the product?
 
I pre-ordered a 4.1, and just ordered a 5.1 in 20CV that supposedly is not a pre-order, that supposedly will be delivered in a timely manner. I'll try to catch a 5.1 in 3V in Jan. if I can. If I miss, Ive probably ordered my last Survive Knife. I don't like paying up front for any knife. I've bought custom knives from some of the best names in the business, and I paid on delivery. And in one case, a very well known maker who has done mid-tech types with a major company, who typically charges several hundred dollars for his work, discounted the knife by about 50% when he missed the delivery time frame. And I don't mean a deadline. He told me a time frame, and missed it a couple months, and discounted the knife that much. And I didn't pay up front. So, while I respect the product that Survive makes, based on the reviews I read and watch, I don't THINK I'll be doing any more pre-orders. Sorry.
 
Far longer actually, I have a realistic delivery date and will simply shut off order taking if lead times begin to exceed 12 weeks. More importantly though is the fact that I would never pre sell products to use for working capital and/or new product development. Every thing I sell I already have the materials on hand to build and am never upside down financially where I need to take in new orders to cover old orders. There is no way out of that hole unless you come across some extra cash somewhere.

Say for example I decided to build a new sheath model but wanted everyone else to fund it for me so I allow a 500 unit pre order at 100 each. That is 50k, I spend 5 on development, 15 on materials and 5 on operating costs while developing it and then suddenly keel over from eating waaaay too much bacon every morning for the last thirty years. That means my now happily bereaved widow can afford to refund only half of the people that funded this venture.


Standard78 said:
How does their ordering process differ from yours other than the longer wait time? Don't you charge a client first and then they have to wait 8-9 weeks for the product?
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I completely understand your point and it is a huge risk. I just believe a lot of people don't understand the process it takes to develop and make this new set of knives. You make outstandingly beautiful and functional sheaths but you can process them with far fewer steps than what it takes to get a single knife designed, manufactured and built. It's almost like comparing painting a house vs. building a house.
I want to be clear that I am in no way disrespecting you or your craft.
 
The way I see it, S!K is kinda getting an interest-free business loan. Which is fine, if you want to be the entity supplying the loan. I don't.
 
rockspyder said:
The way I see it, S!K is kinda getting an interest-free business loan. Which is fine, if you want to be the entity supplying the loan. I don't.
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Some people see it as making an investment in something they believe in and trust, but it's not for everyone and that's cool. A big thing Guy is trying to accomplish is having enough in stock to sell so that you don't have to do something you feel is a gamble.
 
Guy apparently does good work. I can respect that. He also apparently doesn't want to work the bank/creditor business game. I can respect that, too. I just don't think I'm into giving any more interest- free loans. An investment implies a return. In return for my investment (an advancement in full on a knife I have zero guarantee on getting), I am getting... a knife. Typically, someone who "invests," has the POTENTIAL to receive several times their investment, or a continuing return on their investment. True, anyone who "invests" in Survive has the potential to get several times a return on their investment. But, only if the company (Guy) supplies a product that has a high demand (which Guy does), but the supply decreases, or stops (Guy goes out of business, for whatever reason). I don't want ill to fall to Guy. I don't know him, but what I know of him, he seems to be a reasonable person, sincere. So I don't want him to fail. But the money I spent to pre-order a knife can hardly be called an investment, because if he succeeds and starts to produce more and more knives, my knife decreases in value, therefore my return on investment is negative. If he fails, goes bankrupt, and produces no more knives, then my knife MAY appreciate in value, a net positive investment. As all "speculation," it is a gamble. But I didn't preorder a knife for speculation or investment. I ordered a knife to buy a knife. If I am waiting for a knife to be made because materials are being purchased and work is being performed that I paid in full in advance for, that isn't an investment, that is an interet-free business loan. Which again, is fine, if you want to be the creditor. I don't, so I don't plan to be again, ever, in the future.
 
No problem, It's not really an apples to apples comparison really. Some people run it the borrowed way and some the all cash way. If I wanted to take out an SBA loan or take on an investor I could do the next several stages of what I have planned much faster but slow and steady works for me and carries no risk. I would rather solidify one design than try and rush twenty, I have tubs full of designs that will probably never see built in my lifetime. There is actually quite a bit that goes on to develop and field test a sheath, but it is certainly easier and faster to build prototypes.

I think Guy has a an absolutely great product and if he can get the production side going to where people can hop on and actually order something S! will blow up huge. Which is great for him...and me later :D At least let me order a t-shirt, heck even a bag of metal shavings or something while I wait for a 12 to chop stuff with.


Standard78 said:
I completely understand your point and it is a huge risk. I just believe a lot of people don't understand the process it takes to develop and make this new set of knives. You make outstandingly beautiful and functional sheaths but you can process them with far fewer steps than what it takes to get a single knife designed, manufactured and built. It's almost like comparing painting a house vs. building a house.
I want to be clear that I am in no way disrespecting you or your craft.
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Has anyone ever heard of a little website called Kickstarter? How about indie gogo! Everyone needs to stop worrying about whether they feel like a bank or whether you like this business model. This is one of many business models used today. Some work and some fail, but the terms were spelled out in big bold shiny letters ahead of time and you had a choice. Sure anything could happen and you could lose all your money, as has happened on some Kickstarter campaigns. But your return on your investment is the existence of a knife that could or would not have been made otherwise. Sure there is risk, frankly I only preordered a 3.5, because I wasn't sure I was going to like the designs. If that knife never gets made, that would suck, but I signed on the line knowing that to be the case. No one forced anyone to do anything in this situation, and some people held out while others spent heavily. I frankly prefer this to other big name companies that don't charge, but also give you 0 idea when a knife will get to you. I have bought into both models because at the end of the day I like the product and I can accept the risk.
 
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