Concerns About Survive! Business and Misleading Lead Time Estimates

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SURVIVE! Ellie said:
We can’t change the fact that we offered the preorder promotion. If we had known how long it was going to take for the first production runs to finish and how much hand finishing is required, we would not have listed so many models. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere recently, we can’t travel back in time. Hindsight sucks. I can promise that we have learned and we won’t make that same mistake again in the future. For right now, we are doing everything in our power to get these orders fulfilled.
- We have hired someone to help in the office and as soon as she was trained up and self-sufficient I started spending the bulk of my time in the workshop to learn and be as helpful as possible. Once I am fully proficient, we will look at hiring someone who I will train so Guy can keep working on getting your orders out.
- A few times a week we get asked to let people place a preorder and we say no. We stopped taking new preorders. Instead we wait until the blades have finished production and we know exactly what we have and then offer a presale for folks who are ok with a wait in exchange for the guarantee.
- There hasn’t been a Monday sale in a few weeks because we are still getting caught up on those orders. (We are close to having those all out so Monday sales should resume soon, depending on what we have available each week.)
- We have assessed our systems and recently rearranged the workshop so that can be more efficient. With the handle fitment concerns we were having to fix sharpened blades, which was pretty daunting and time consuming. Instead we are taking longer at the beginning of the process to make sure everything comes out good in the end. Now that extra hand work is mostly completed (see our latest Instagram post). We have all of the GSO-4.7 Starter orders built and Guy will be sharpening those over the next few days. The remaining GSO-4.7 preorders will be getting worked on through next week.

We are very close to proving that things are turning around as far as delays.

There have been a lot of good ideas mentioned by the folks here, but they are plans for the future. We have raised prices on the GSO Series and we have plans to offer the SK Series with fewer options and little to no hand finishing. Unfortunately, those are changes that won’t take effect until some point in the future. Right now, we are working on fulfilling those past promises. I am glad to know that so many people are rooting for us and I am looking forward to seeing that future.
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There are a lot of questions that I could ask, but I will keep this short. Your posts does not in any way address the significant concerns expressed about your business model and cash-flow, nor does it explain why you are not able to provide any lead time estimates. However, I find the section that I bolded above to be the most problematic. You say you "won't make that same mistake again," and yet that is exactly what you did with your 9/29 email about the 7/7 pre-sale.

I am not looking to stir thing up here. However, the more I hear from you and Guy the more concerned I become about the solvency of S!K.
 
Honestly I checked both the seconds and limited edition pages before I signed into BF this evening. I'm new here in the last 2 months being turned on by multiple S!K posts in my feed over the last 6 months while hunting other makers wares. Under these terms my opinions are not attacking anyone, reducing their experiences or waiving any parties liabilities to each other.

For what it's worth I've had a very positive Survive Knives experience, I ordered a CruV 4.7 which took about month to arrive and a UB 4.7 CruV which upon arrival will be about a month as well. I ordered a Factory 2.7 2nd which I expect should be month(s) from order as well. I'm good to use these and see what else strikes my fancy. Obviously YMMV, but this is what I've experienced.

I could be crazy, but this simply sounds like growing pains for a newish company putting out quality stuff everyone wants all at once. Much better than having made thousands of knives no-one wants. As long a the Survive folks keep responding positively, admit past errors and fix them, that's all I can ask of any new company producing demanded product, they can't change the past. Seems like they are training and hiring currently and in the future to avoid/fix past errors. Not sure it's fair asking a company about their business model and future cash flow, it's their company to run, while the choice to be a customer is ours and ours alone. I know this is oversimplifying things, but if anyone has hit their wait time limit, one can always ask for a refund. I've done it myself a few times on Knives, Guns, Motorcycles and Cars. It would seem like any unwanted Survive Knife would find a new home just fine.

There are a few makers with their head in the sand not responding, not admitting mistakes, not saying word one, just not delivering anything and/or defrauding customers and this clearly isn't the case. On the flip side, plenty of other makers putting out great stuff on BF weekly, bi-weekly, and irregularly from around the globe you should also take a look at with almost instantaneous lead times. I've got a pair of Nessmuks I love from a guy in Croatia made from tank turrent bearings and I paid (PAYPAL) in a currency I've never heard of....only on BF.
 
From my perspective, I see three groups that talk past one another; Blind loyalty fans, frustrated fans, and SK!. The frustrated fans have reached a point of frustration where PERCEPTION alone now is fair game for criticizing SK!. There is a hypersensitivity, hyper-skepticism, and hyper-cynicism that has resulted from a history of out of sync lead time estimates/updates and reality. I can see the frustration of everyone feeling like their comments are failing on deaf ears. From frustrated fans perspective, they don't want even the hint of perception that SK! is pushing anything additional into Que or is creating a false lead-time narrative. From Sk's perspective, they are doing the best they can and have been careful NOT to put anything out of order or anything that is unfair. The 7/7 preorder is extra stock from what has already been bought and ground and will be done after preorders, is not as discounted as preorders.
This 7/7 preorder frustration reminds me a LOT of the 2nd's 4.7 that got sold and delivered WAY before the 1rsts are done. The 2nd's had no bearing on the 1rsts but it was the PERCEPTION that didn't sit well with some. So even if the 7/7 has no ill effect on que, or unfairness. Without pointing fingers at either frustrated fans or Sk!, there is an astonishing level of tone deafness in the conversation.
 
mlmcasual said:
From my perspective, I see three groups that talk past one another; Blind loyalty fans, frustrated fans, and SK!. The frustrated fans have reached a point of frustration that PERCEPTION alone now is fair game for criticizing SK!. There is a hypersensitivity, hyper-skepticism, and hyper-cynicism that has resulted. I can see the frustration of everyone feel like their comments are failing on deaf ears. From frustrated fans perspective, they don't want even the hint of perception that SK! is pushing anything additional into Que or is creating a false lead-time narrative. From Sk's perspective, they are doing the best they can and have been careful NOT to put anything out of order. The 7/7 preorder is extra stock from what has already been bought and ground and will be done after preorders, is not as discounted as preorders.
This 7/7 preorder frustration reminds me a LOT of the 2nd's that 4.7 2nds that got sold and delivered WAY before the 1rsts are done. The 2nd's had no bearing on the 1rsts but it was the PERCEPTION that didn't sit well with some. So even if the 7/7 has no ill effect on que, or unfairness.. it's the just the perception that is not sitting well with some.
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TL/DR: Survive does a garbage job of overall messaging and transparency. It's not their responsibility to answer to questions about their solvency, but it definitely is their job to get a hell of a lot better at forecasting actual timelines, and being really up-front about those so folks can make decisions on more than past failures to deliver, general vagueness, and messaging gaffes that lead to inevitable hostility. They NEED to start being able to make commitments they can stick to.

To put it mildly, they seem poor at damage control.

If everyone gets the knives they ordered, everyone'll be satisfied (maybe not happy or thrilled, but satisfied). But there are way too many unknowns in Surviveland, and the anxiety around their product is totally legit.
 
I really, love survive knives, I own a orange necker and I wish I never got rid of 5. I want another and I would put my money forth upfront. I'm a small business owner and I know how hard it can be to stay afloat and make profit. It's hard, but I'm confident Survive has the will to take a step forward. It's not how hard we can hit, it's about how hard we can get hit and keep moving forward. Most people give up when they are on the verge of success. Never quit before you reach that gold👍
 
Can we add a fourth group?
Pragmatic realists.
I used to be hyper everything but then I got old. :)
 
I also think some of the frustrations come from the immense amount of regular negativaty in threads that pop up. Those of us that have faith in the company and accept the long wait, worry that the potential new customers wont buy because of a lot of the negative comments. That could end up causing more issues for S!K. I thonk the other frustrations come from the fact that there seemed to be some progress and a slow but steady flow of finished knives and then a sudden drought. Look carefully at the timing of many of these threads and they only show up when there is a slow down in blades coming out.

Every single person has an opinion and a right to express that opinion and I think it is actually good that there is a thread where they can be expressed and discussed from all point of view.

As far as "solvency", S!K has no responsability to release that info.

I think it is actually a good thing that people are voicing thier opinions and frustrations. It meams there is still a solid demand for S!K's product. I think the overwhelming sentiment here is that we all are rooting for S!K and our expression of opions on business operations and other things are our hope that S!K will make solid decisions that improve their company!

I finish how I alway finish my responses to these threads. I HAVE GOTTEN EVERY S!K KNIFE THAT I PAID FOR!
 
If you're in, be in.
If you're out, be out.
But don't complain about your choice. Either change it or let it go. Those are the options.
 
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Demonic1 said:
4.7 & 7/7 ordered March 2015
10 & 6 ordered Aug 2015
4.5 ordered April 2016

I waited a year for the 4.7. I got it this April 2016.

I realize that I'm in for a LONG wait for a couple of those, especially after looking at the production schedule.

The cure is not to look.
I ordered my first gso 6 when my son was in middle school. He graduates high school this spring. There's more to life than worring about when a semi custom knife will be delivered.

A knife is an investment, investments take time to mature.

That being said, I've waited over a year and a half for my Koster bushmaster, and even longer for a Busse custom shop.
The high quality knife game isn't for everyone.

If you're in, be in.
If you're out, be out.
But don't complain about your choice. Either change it or let it go. Those are the options.
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Wow...I mean WOW..
I could not have imagined a more PERFECT example of the type of elitist, defelction and left field apples V. oranges critique that turns pragmatic fans and newcomers off then those lines.
 
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Demonic1 said:
Don't complain about your choice. You made it. It's not elitist, just different priorities.
You too could afford expensive knives if you didn't own a car and walked to work every day.
Cars are way more expensive than knives.
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Holy Left Field Batman.
I am hardly poor or cash strapped. I could afford 10 GSO knives without it putting a dent in my savings. But I work hard for my money and feel it's my job to be a good steward of finances. I never thought of waiting for something I already paid for as a hobby or a game or an investment. Sure, the knife itself is definitely an investment.
 
Demonic1 said:
Don't complain about your choice. You made it. It's not elitist, just different priorities.
You too could afford expensive knives if you didn't own a car and walked to work every day.
Cars are way more expensive than knives.
Just different choices and priorities.
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Lmao what? Dude these guys are taking more money in then sending knives out. It is only right that people are concerned about their investments we have seen this before how long till this company is tails over head? I would guess they are there now and it's a matter of time that people are trying to get refunded and the cc companies go after the owners. Bad business is just that climbing out of a hole asking for more dosent work.
 
:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:
ncrockclimb said:
Let me start by saying I want S!K to succeed. I was an early fan of S!K and purchased a few knives back in 2015. I was an active member of this forum and genuinely like the people here. In one of the first GBU threads that was critical of S!K, I was an aggressive advocate for Guy and S!K. I say all this because I want to make it clear that I am not “anti Survive!” and have supported S!K in the past.

The Starter Program was meant to be a way for S!K to generate capital to grow the business. It was promoted as a one-time effort and as an alternative to traditional debt or equity financing. Although they did not guarantee any delivery dates, they estimated that the 4.7s would be done before Christmas 2015. (they are still in production) Back in early 2015 when the Starter Program was in full swing, I am pretty sure that neither S!K nor the people buying knives expected things to go this slowly.

Traditionally, a business starts when someone makes an initial investment, creates a product, sells it for a profit, reinvests the money they made, creates more product, sells it for a profit, etc. Time is a VERY important factor in any business plan. If you build a business plan with the assumption that it will take week to build a product, and instead it takes you two months, you will probably eat through your initial investment and have to get more money.

Instead of getting a loan or selling shares, S!K got everyone to pay up front. Assuming that S!K did a detailed business plan, they made assumptions on how long it would take to make knives. Based on the estimated deliver dates provided by S!K back in early 2015, they are taking at least 3x longer than expected to produce knives.

Here is the problem. Time = money. S!K seems to be incapable of producing knives in a timely manner, and is burning through the Starter Program money at a faster than expected rate. They continue to add new models to the lineup, do additional pre-sales on existing models and sell of seconds / ugly betties to raise additional cash, all the while pushing the production of the Starter Program knives further into the future.

S!Ks standard response to concerns about delivery times always conveniently ignores the expansion of their product offering, additional pre-sales and inability to maintain a production schedule, and instead focuses on their commitment to quality. I agree that a commitment to quality is an admirable thing. However, if a company does not maintain a profitable business and meet their production schedule, they will not remain open and quality wont mean a damn thing.

Survive! fans keep saying Guy is a great knife maker. I am sorry, but I disagree. Guy designs nice knives, but he has proven that he is a bad business manager, has difficulty managing a supply chain and manufacturing operation, and is incapable of getting product produced in a timely manner. To put it another way, it looks like Guy designed a business model that won’t work, and the knives he has produced were subsidized buy the money paid for the knives that have not been made yet. And he is still responsible for the huge liability of the orders that have yet to be built.

I am writing this now because of the 7/7 email. I find it VERY troubling that S!K is not being forthcoming about lead times when they solicit new business. While I won’t go so far as to impugn their integrity, S!K seems to be using intentionally vague and easily misinterpreted language that hides the fact that the most recent round of 7/7 sales will probably not ship before the end of 2017 (and that is a generous estimate imho).

Let’s also seriously consider why S!K would offer these knives for sale, at a discount. They have already taken in $100k’s worth of sales, the majority of which still have not shipped (and probably wont for YEARS). They have demand for their product and can sell completed units as fast as they can make them. And yet, once again, they are trying to get cash NOW for a product that won’t be delivered for at least year. To most experienced business people, this looks like a company that is really strapped for cash. It also points to mismanagement and an unsustainable business model.

I know that this is a long post. But I think it is important to get this information out there. I want to see S!K prosper, but I don’t believe they can under the current business model. If S!K has any hope of turing this around, they need make major changes. If they continue down this path, i am convinced they will not be able to fulfill all their commitments.
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Demonic1 said:
4.7 & 7/7 ordered March 2015
10 & 6 ordered Aug 2015
4.5 ordered April 2016

I waited a year for the 4.7. I got it this April 2016.

I realize that I'm in for a LONG wait for a couple of those, especially after looking at the production schedule.

The cure is not to look.
I ordered my first gso 6 when my son was in middle school. He graduates high school this spring. There's more to life than worring about when a semi custom knife will be delivered.

A great knife is an investment and investments take time to mature.

That being said, I've waited over a year and a half for my Koster bushmaster, and even longer for a Busse custom shop.
The high quality knife game isn't for everyone.

If you're in, be in.
If you're out, be out.
But don't complain about your choice. Either change it or let it go. Those are the options.
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Well, uh no, not as I or many others see it.

A great knife is NOT an investment. Waiting for "maturity" does not produce a dividend. A knife is a tool, no matter how high the regard for the blade or maker. S!K knives are not semi-custom. They are production knives, plain and simple. That is not a negative, just reality.

Koster's and Busse Custom Shop compared to S!K. Hand built by knifemakers, not finished by knife designers. Again, that is not a negative, just reality. S!K has some of the finest F/F blades on the market but they are not on par with the others mentioned. Same jungle. Different animals.

The reality here is that Guy wants his high quality knife game to be for EVERYONE, which is why he produces an incredible knife at an even more incredible price. A super high quality tool with premium materials that can be afforded by anyone. That is the benchmark on how S!K was founded.

And I couldn't disagree more with your last statement. We have more options and I made my choice based on false information. The sales thread said a couple of months. That was July. It has been the same story on every model offered. Has anyone ever received their knife on time regardless of when it was said to be ready in the sales thread?

Who are you to tell me when to complain about the way I'm being treated as a customer? That is laughable at best. It was my hard earned money. I paid for a knife with it so I also bought the right to complain if I'm unhappy with poor customer service. I'll take option 3 sir. Wait for my knife to get here because, in spite of my well founded complaints and general bi***ing about it, I know it is the best blade out there for my needs that I can afford, yet I still have the right to complain.
 
Demonic1 said:
More whining here than on FB. I'm out.
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Really man a actual good conversation you get challenged and run for the hills? All statements were and are legitimate but yet your rebuttal of how people complain or spend their monies are not worth but the comment above ?
 
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