Aftermarket in the Toilet?

ddd said:
Everyone,

All this is very interesting and also I seem to be learning a few facts
along the way, BUT, where is all this going? That is beyond the grasp
of my simple minded comprehension....

And also - - Hi Steven... :)

All the best,
David Darom (ddd)
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Hi David......June came and went...I will have something for you very soon, it is about 1/3 finished, do you want to see it now, or would you rather wait?

Discussions like this tend to be circular in nature, rather than linear, so eventually, the discussion will end back right where it started.

As A.G. states, and I have continually said for 15 years...the cycle of knife sales and values fluctuates just like everything else.....those that can get close to understanding the nature of this fluctuation have a tendency to have more fun and make money, rather than lose or break even...but it is WORK to stay on top of these fluctuations.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Well Steven, as you see I have more spare time on my hands today
since Tim Hancock's book has been finished!!

I frequent the BladeForums because it truly broadens my knowledge on
the various sides of this exciting world.
I miss your posts, though, as they were always the most educational...

Changing over for a moment, it would be interesting to see what you
have done, but I can wait. From experience I know that getting to the
end many times forces many changes in earlier sections.

All the best,
David Darom (ddd)
 
I think that AG's comment is a realistic one. It fits with "As the economy goes, so goes the (fill in the blank with anything)". If this is a typical economic downturn, it will probably mean a typical, similar downturn in the market we are discussing.

However, if we are only in the middle of discovery with respect to our financial institutions - and that discovery continues beyond AIG and gathers momentum - then the effects will likely be more than AG's pragmatic experience suggests.

Back to my most erudite of comments - it will be what it will be.
 
STeven, just saw your comment - right on. Money can, indeed, be made in a down market. And the fun is not in generation of capital, but in the KNIVES!!
 
after a few pages, it is my perception that, at the moment, my initial assessment was somewhat accurate. We could refer to the aftermarket as 'softening', as opposed to 'in the toilet', if that provides a better description from a semantics pov.

What I'm really interested in is the 'whys'. I understand that there are many factors, many of which have been touched upon.

Maybe if we break down the different influences which are putting the aftermarket where it is, we'll get somewhere new.

Here are a few I've picked up;

-a downturn in economies
-a proliferation of new makers whose work is higher value than the 'big names', all things being equal
-'cult of personality' is fickle, ie; name branding lasts only so long in this climate
-top tier collectors driving interest in certain makers around
-prolific collectors liquidating large collection
-a change in interest by the masses in certain types of knives, (I added that one)
-a crackdown on knife ownership by the 'authorities', (I added that one too)
 
Hey! Buy low, sell high right?:D
 
Kohai999 said:
d., in the twenty years that I have been collecting, I have noticed.....

Common individuals DO NOT collect custom knives...., irrespective of the overall economic situation at any given time.... this is not an elitist or exclusionary opinion...I wish it was not true......there are many "average joes" who may own a nice knife or two.....even a few entry level customs.....but actively collecting, or even interested, parties(in my direct experience) are not common...it takes FAR too much time, research and money to get involved in this irrelevant hobby if you cannot continually play.

This is of course, also excluding those who purchase user knives only....as they tend to identify as knife USERS as opposed to knife COLLECTORS.

Also, I didn't get your point either....sarcasm or "tongue in cheek" is much more effective if it is easily understood by those whose voices are not occupying your mind.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
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Thanks STeven for your reply. Makes sense to me. Sorry if I was vague or a little sarcastic really wasn't my intent. I do consider my self common or average joe. With that said I do have many upper level knives collected over the years and at my age enjoy them more every day as an accomplishment of my common ways. Will try be more to the point in future post.
Regards,
 
Lorien said:
We could refer to the aftermarket as 'softening', as opposed to 'in the toilet', if that provides a better description from a semantics pov.

What I'm really interested in is the 'whys'. I understand that there are many factors, many of which have been touched upon.

Maybe if we break down the different influences which are putting the aftermarket where it is, we'll get somewhere new.

Here are a few I've picked up;

-a downturn in economies
-a proliferation of new makers whose work is higher value than the 'big names', all things being equal
-'cult of personality' is fickle, ie; name branding lasts only so long in this climate
-top tier collectors driving interest in certain makers around
-prolific collectors liquidating large collection
-a change in interest by the masses in certain types of knives, (I added that one)
-a crackdown on knife ownership by the 'authorities', (I added that one too)
Click to expand...


Certain segments of "the market" are soft...others are very strong. You are seeking answers to something without an answer....as I said before...so nothing "new" or definitive will be culled from this.

As an example...

The "aftermarket" on Steve Corkum knives is "soft" right now because Corkum is a lying, theiving douchebag, and the majority of the community will cheer when he is pronounced dead.

...the "aftermarket" on Michael Walker knives right now is at an all time high because a group of collectors and dealers are competing to get everything that Michael is currently making.

Lorien, there is so much variance within this small community, the only way to get a feel for wassup with any real clarity is to specialize. If you focus on the general state, all you will get is generalization...and innaccuracies.

Lorien said:
Hey! Buy low, sell high right?:D
Click to expand...

Yes.



Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
Hi AG,

Hate to be the one to disagree with you. However, a new page has been turned.

My sales are up for both sub $500 and over $1,000 knives.

As a mere pup with only 25 years in the Aftermarket.

My experiences (and sales) have shown me that the market has changed considerably over the last 5 years. Compared to the previous 20 (for me).

Hi STeven,

I agree 100% with your statement that custom knives are not bought by common people. I suspect the same can be said for people who collect Duck Decoys, crystal figurines and watches.
 
STeven, let's face it, the economy has probably the most impact of all the factors on any overall softening in the market we are discussing. Forget trying to segment it into pockets. This statement is not directed to you, but to all of us, when I repeat what a great economist once said: "It's the economy, stupid."

Please don't take that quote personally, whatever you do! I use it only to explain that a simple explanation here works best, if someone wants to know what is currently, and what will likely in the future, impact the market the most.

EDIT: Let me say that I very much agree with AG's comment about knives under a certain threshold being mostly affected, and knives over a certain threshold being a bit immune. I would put the lower threshold around $1000 in these days, however.

EDIT #2: I think this thread is about all talked out. The comments I agree with most are those of Mssrs. Garsson and Russell, though in all honesty I can't see Mr Robertson's, since he is back on ignore.
 
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HI AG,

Just wanted to add to my post. I think $1,000 Sales have increased over the years as the makers keep pushing the envelope. They have been able to do this due in no small part to the collectors who continue to spend the money on those knives.

The Sub $500 knives have continued to be a great seller in all times is due in large part to the quality you are receiving for the money.

On a side note, what I heard from many of those who attended your show. Was the custom knives that were selling the best were the sub $500 knives. Many makers told me that is what they would be concentrating on for your show next year.

As well there were some very expensive knives sold at the knife as well.
 
betzner said:
STeven, let's face it, the economy has probably the most impact of all the factors on any overall softening in the market we are discussing. Forget trying to segment it into pockets. This statement is not directed to you, but to all of us, when I repeat what a great economist once said: "It's the economy, stupid."

.
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Bob,

I don't take it personally....BUT....those at the top of the game that I thought would be most affected by the economy are not. The sellers are still buying and selling, and the collectors are still collecting....maybe they are completely insulated from economic downturn, not sure.

Don Guild was at Chicago auction this weekend, proclaiming "I have more money than time".....I'm not breaking it into pockets, that was my advice for Lorien, who is trying to get a handle on it "all"....personally, I don't want to get a handle on it "all".

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
And I agree with you again (oops, I said I wasn't going to post another one, lol). My comment about the guy who might otherwise buy his first kinife, or his first custom, but for the economy, is where I am coming from. The guys you are talking about are buyers in a downturn, as I am.

There are those who will jump in and find the values created by any downturn. It's just that we, all of us, can only see so much of the market. Any economic downturn will have an effect. I again repeat that I am in full agreement with AG on the issue of the higher end knives. They will be much less affected than those under four figures.
 
braillediver said:
Any insight or suggestions on how to best benefit from current market trends?

My desire isn’t really to collect or invest. My goal is to learn, buy wisely, get to handle nice knives and then sell them (if possible) at minimal to no loss. Sort of enjoy the journey not the destination.


Mitch
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Wait until you go to a show.....BladeWest might be a good start..get there when the show opens..talk to everyone there...set an ironclad budget.....have an idea what genre appeals to you.

As far as "seasonal" shifts, can you be more specific?

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
As far as "seasonal" shifts, can you be more specific?”

Disclaimer- With out actually defining which market segment the question is sort of useless and there’s a big difference between perception and actual but:

Does the perceived market slow down in the spring or fall or does it pick up before Christmas. Are there slow periods like over the summer when people are on vacation and less involved in the knife market? Or is the basic market consistent month to month throughout the year?

In audio- the market slows down over the summer as more people are out enjoying the summer and picks up in the fall/winter as more people are inside listening to their systems. But hard core high end audiophiles are active year round.

I don’t know Loriens background but it indicates he registered in Dec 2005. If he’s only been involved in custom knives for 2 ½ years or so then he hasn’t had the advantage of observing the market over an extended period of time and might not be aware of seasonal variations in sales.

I’ve only been aware / interested in custom knives for a year or less and am interested in understanding it better. It seems the market itself can be studied separate from the actual knives.


Mitch
 
braillediver said:
.......
I’ve only been aware / interested in custom knives for a year or less and am interested in understanding it better. It seems the market itself can be studied separate from the actual knives.


Mitch
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I'd like to help you, but can't.....Les, A.G. and other active dealers would be able to tell you historically if there is a "slow time"....for me, it is like fishing....the market is up when the fish are hitting, and down when there are no fish....but you have to go fishing every day in order to continuously catch fish.

Without a deep understanding of the WORKINGS of the market/community(makers, knives, dealers, collectors, writers.....wives and girlfriends, lol...:D) you will gain exactly NOTHING from studying the market.....the "why" is intrinsically tied to the "who" and the "what".....and one active and well-funded person within a specific market can skew the whole thing.

Best Regards,

STeven Garsson
 
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braillediver said:
Any insight or suggestions on how to best benefit from current market trends?

My desire isn’t really to collect or invest. My goal is to learn, buy wisely, get to handle nice knives and then sell them (if possible) at minimal to no loss. Sort of enjoy the journey not the destination.


Mitch
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Mitch, the below is the first point I make in my collecting seminar and probably the most important for the newer customer knife collector.

"My best advice in a single word to the newer collector is “Patience”. Be patient in selecting what knives to add to your collection rather than buying on impulse."
 
HI Mitch,

For me it is time frames more than seasons.

January is usually slow...until about the 22nd or 23rd. Then it takes off until about the first week of April (the majority of my clients have to pay the IRS).

Mid May it picks up again heading into the Blade show. Two weeks after the Blade show things taper off. Although this past July was the best July I have had in 20 years (go figure). Middle of August gets here and it is like someone flips a switch. Things will be hectic till around the 20th of December.

Fortunately things never completely stop. There are always orders being filled, trades being made and knives being sold.
 
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